Cyprus-Forum.com

[Maximus]

I said, it is pretty useless showing me one economic indicator.

Yet you do exactly that yourself have you not ?

And now you are being very confusing. So lets get to the point with your analysis.

Why dont you tell us why "Turkey may well be heading for disaster"

I made no analysis of Turkey's future. May = it may be heading for disaster, or it may not = no analysis, no claim, no prediction. That you interpreted that statement as meaning I agree with you that Turkey is clearly heading for disaster just reinforces my opinion that you have a kind of 'blind spot' in regards to Turkey. All I did was just question your and B25s analysis of Turkey's imminent demise based on decades of experience of having seen such predictions from you both. My 'analysis was about you and B25 , not Turkey.

OH, I see,

This conversation is about Maximus's and B25's negative opinions about Turkey and not Turkeys negative behavior in Syria that could contribute to her heading for disaster.

Well, you are not convincing me otherwise by making references to Turkeys GDP and comparing it to Greece's. And since you are not making any analysis of Turkeys future, be it social/domestic, economic or foreign policy, you dont have an informed opinion on the matter.

So you are just talking sh..t.

[erolz66]

OH, I see,

This conversation is about Maximus's and B25's negative opinions about Turkey and not Turkeys negative behavior in Syria that could contribute to her heading for disaster.

Well, you are not convincing me otherwise by making references to Turkeys GDP and comparing it to Greece's. And since you are not making any analysis of Turkeys future, be it social/domestic, economic or foreign policy, you dont have an informed opinion on the matter.

So you are just talking sh..t.

I made an observation. Is it an "off topic" observation ? Yes it is but that is hardly a crime here on this forum.

My observation, my theory, is that you and B25 can see an indicator about Turkey and conclude from that that the "end is nigh" for Turkey, yet it seems to me you could see exactly the same indicator about some country other than Turkey and you would not draw the same conclusion. My theory is that your analysis when applied to Turkey is skewed. That is my observation / theory. It may be a BS theory but I think I see evidence that suggests otherwise.

As for me taking a single economic indicator have a look at this recentish post of yours.

cyprus47200-90.html#p892904

Is that not you taking a single indicator of foreign exchange reserves in a limited time span to support a conclusion that Turkey is on a trajectory of disaster ? Yet if you are talking trajectory to me you are talking trend over time. So I look at your chosen economic indicator over time for Turkey of foreign exchange reserves and this is what I see

turkey-foreign-exchange-reserves.png

If I throw in a comparison country , not Greece as that seems to upset you, this is what I see

turkey-foreign-exchange-reserves (1).png

If this is showing a clear trajectory, trend, that indicates "Turkish children will have no prospects for the future." then in all honesty I am not seeing it myself.

[Maximus]

You are doing the same thing you are saying I do but instead, you say the end is not nigh.

If you think my analysis is BS, then your analysis is BS too and you haven't provided any evidence to the contrary. My theory is that your analysis of Turkey as a counter argument is incomplete and skewed.

With that being said, the post you are quoting me above does NOT include one economic indicator. That is just a quick blog post that mentions various economic indicators with the focal point being and the effect it is having on the currency and exchange rate.

If Turkey is doing so great economically, why is the currency consistently depreciating in value? That is not how it should work.

Ask you again, make an analysis of why Turkey is not heading for disaster to convince otherwise. You are not limited to economics which my overall opinion is not either. I guess you haven't figured that in yet.

[erolz66]

You are doing the same thing you are saying I do but instead, you say the end is not nigh.

No you simply misunderstand me. I have not said I think Turkey's end is not imminent or I think it is. I have not said either in this thread or historically. It is B25 and you have been saying the end is clearly nigh for decades now. Forgive me for daring to question that analysis.

If you think my analysis is BS, then your analysis is BS too and you haven't provided any evidence to the contrary. My theory is that your analysis of Turkey as a counter argument is incomplete and skewed.

I have made no analysis of Turkey, no predictions, one way or another. Once again my off topic 'analysis' was about you and B25 and not about Turkey.

If Turkey is doing so great economically, why is the currency consistently depreciating in value? That is not how it should work.

I have not and am not arguing that Turkey is doing great economically. I have and am arguing that you and B25 appear unable to asses indicators about Turkey dispassionately. That you make conclusions about what such indicators mean for Turkey that you would not make if the same indicators were about another country.

Ask you again, make an analysis of why Turkey is not heading for disaster to convince otherwise. You are not limited to economics which my overall opinion is not either. I guess you haven't figured that in yet.

Unlike you and B25 I do not have any strong views or opinions with regard to if the end is nigh for Turkey or not. I am not the one who has been making claims either way for nigh on 20 years. I am just pointing out that when you guys make such predictions based on a given indicator and I then go and check what data I can find in order to form an opinion I do not see what you seem to see, like in the case of foreign reserves to give one example.

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to bet on will Turkey still exists as a sovereign nation in 20 years time (or 30 or 50) or not, then I would guess that yes it will still exist but as I say I am NOT the one who has been making 'end is nigh' predictions OR 'end is not nigh' predictions for decades now. It is you and B25 that have been doing that. I am just questioning how much such predictions are a result of dispassionate analysis on your behalf vs them being more about wishful thinking. Sorry if me doing that is upsetting to you.

[Maximus]

I'm not getting upset Erolz.

I find our conversations mildly amusing but this is getting kind of boring.

I think turkey is heading for disaster and you don't.

Fine.

Or maybe I'm getting that wrong since you are not making an analysis or prediction to indicate otherwise.

This is now a pointless debate without substance.

[erolz66]

I'm not getting upset Erolz.

I find our conversations mildly amusing but this is getting kind of boring.

I think turkey is heading for disaster and you don't.

Fine.

Or maybe I'm getting that wrong since you are not making an analysis or prediction to indicate otherwise.

This is now a pointless debate without substance.

I agree this is going no where. My summary would be

You have thought for decades that Turkey is clearly heading for imminent disaster and I think your opinion is based more on desire than dispassionate analysis.

[Maximus]

I'm not getting upset Erolz.

I find our conversations mildly amusing but this is getting kind of boring.

I think turkey is heading for disaster and you don't.

Fine.

Or maybe I'm getting that wrong since you are not making an analysis or prediction to indicate otherwise.

This is now a pointless debate without substance.

I agree this is going no where. My summary would be

You have thought for decades that Turkey is clearly heading for imminent disaster and I think your opinion is based more on desire than dispassionate analysis.

Ok, well done.

Thanks for that.

[Robin Hood]

Update on events in Syria ................. by Moon of Alabama. A more informed observation of events on the ground?

Syria - Turkey's Bluff Is Called - Media Opposition Sources Run By British Intelligence

Russia has called Turkey's bluff of a wide ranging attack on Syrian government forces. The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will now have to find a way out of the Idleb trap he set himself in. His excellent Syria adventure is coming to an end.

Meanwhile we learn that the British military intelligence ran another large dis-information campaign that brought 'Syrian voices' into the 'western' press.

Erdogan continues with his wild rhetoric over Syria.

#ERDOGAN: "#Turkey cannot be confined within the 780,000 km2 border. #Misrata, #Aleppo, #Homs & #Hasaka are outside our actual borders, but they are within our emotional & physical limits, we will confront those who limit our history to only 90yrs."
The Turkish talks with Russia have not gone well. Russia had proposed the following points:

1- 16-km border strip in Idlib under Turkey control
2- Russia controls crossing between Idlib strip and Afrin
3- M4 and M5 opened under joint Russian-Turkish supervision
4- Retreat of observation points to border strip

Some ten of Turkey's observation points are currently surrounded by the Syrian army. If Turkey starts to escalate they will be in a dire situation.

Full article ........

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/syria-turkeys-bluff-is-called-media-opposition-sources-run-by-british-intelligence.html

[Maximus]

Turkeys lira just crossed the 6.20 mark to the USD.

After the central bank spent billions, depleting their reserves trying to restrict it to under 6.

Momentum is picking up and Its starting to accelerate towards new all time lows.

Erdogan has created problems everywhere and the regime has completely blocked twitter again to keep people in the dark.

Some people saying they cant access any social media site without a VPN.

Things are not going well on any topic under this regime.

[yialousa1971]

REPORTS: 32 Turkish soldiers killed in Russian airstrikes in northern Syria; Emergency meeting taking place at Erdogan's office.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBelaaz/st ... 7901705219