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What happened to flight MH370?

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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:38 am

Kikapu wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:There is nothing suspect about most of the 40 pieces found so far. They have been confirmed as belonging to MH370 and are held in a hangar in Perth.

Some of the parts even have official serial engravings and part numbers and these part numbers have been confirmed through the downed aircrafts official Flught and Engineering Manuals

Many organisations have had access too, including students from the University of WA.



Paphitis,

Let me clarify. I am not questioning the pieces already found in the Western parts of Indian Ocean as being suspect. I believe they are the pieces from MH370 and it fits well if the crash site was near Diego Garcia. What I am saying is, any new found pieces collectively in one area away from the Western Indian Ocean as being the "crash site", will be a suspect find. What if the MH370's original crash site was near Diego Garcia and almost most of the pieces were collected, put on a ship and dumped in the ocean thousands of miles away, and then "discovered" as the new crash site. Under such scenario, I do not expect the original Flight Data Recorder or the Cockpit Voice Recorders to be found in the so called newly discovered crash site of MH370, if at all. Too much time has gone by that anything is possible to hide the truth.


Actually no. According to the scientists, for the fragments to get caught in the Western Oceanic Currents which took them to Africa, then MH370 ended up ditching around the 35th parallel. This is according to The University of WA and CSIRO. Now Boeing, ATSB have stated that in order for this to be the case, it was a violent ditching from a Stall and Spiral Dive. It was not a controlled glide which would have added at least 200 air nms. If it ditched anywhere else, the debris would be washed up all over the Australian coastline. If it went further south it would end up in Tasmania and New Zealand. Which is where the original search was taking place btw.

So they are starting the search.

But the better news is this. They are relying on technology and every time they have technological advances they reopen the search. Covering 120,000 sq kms every 90 days as opposed to 2 years is a major leap forward which is a very huge thing for the authorities resulting in their confidence.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:54 am

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:Paphitis, what are you saying that MH370 didn‘t have enough fuel to reach Diego Garcia? The flight was destined to Bejing, which is at least 1,000 km further than Diego Garcia from Kaula Lumpur.


Ok Kikapu, you looked it up.

Did you work out the Rhumb Lune Distance. It’s about 800 Kays

In any case Kikapu. Please think it through logically. No one will shoot down an airliner until the very last moment and they are certain it was the last resort. And if it is necessary, there is no reason to hide it as it is completely lawful action.

Or the Americans will just take the hit because there is no one at Diego Garcia most of the time. They can fix the runway in a matter of days. That is a option because Diego Garcia isn’t as important as you think it is. And they don’t have many people there if any most of the time.

Diego Garcia is not a good conspiracy theory at all.

In addition, MH370 would not have got anywhere near Diego Garcia. MH370 was already a few hundred kilometres in its journey to Beijing before changing its course. It had probably done 500 odd kilometres. Then to backtrack, that is another 500 kilometres. Then it was the 5 heading changes around Indonesia adding a few more hundred air miles.

I predict MH379 would have Dutch about 500 to 800 kilometres short of Diego Garcia. I could scientifically work it out if you want, but the fact is it would have got close no matter how you dice it.

In addition, KL to BJ equates to tailwinds
KL to DG you battle the subtropical jet stream which are bloody strong headwinds.

Therefore that adds another 100 nms for each hour of flight time. 3 hours equals 300 nms or another 600 klicks


Paphitis, whether we use the Rhumb line or Great Circle measurements, MH370 had plenty of fuel to reach DG. After all, the search for crash site was done off the coast of Western Australia, which is much further distance from when the flight diverted directions an hour into it's designed flight route to Beijing. Even taking all your above calculations, if the flight couldn't reach DG, then it most certainly couldn't have reached the presumed crash search site off the western coast of Australia, but that's where the search took place.

Look, MH370 had turned off it's transponder, Nav lights and radio silence. Any aircraft approaching a Military base would have been shot down, justifiably. I am not condemning MH370 being shot down under those circumstances. At the same time, no one want's to acknowledge shooting down a passenger plane under any condition. I also believe United Flt. 93 was also shot down on 9/11, also justifiably, but no one is going to acknowledge it either.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:07 am

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:There is nothing suspect about most of the 40 pieces found so far. They have been confirmed as belonging to MH370 and are held in a hangar in Perth.

Some of the parts even have official serial engravings and part numbers and these part numbers have been confirmed through the downed aircrafts official Flught and Engineering Manuals

Many organisations have had access too, including students from the University of WA.



Paphitis,

Let me clarify. I am not questioning the pieces already found in the Western parts of Indian Ocean as being suspect. I believe they are the pieces from MH370 and it fits well if the crash site was near Diego Garcia. What I am saying is, any new found pieces collectively in one area away from the Western Indian Ocean as being the "crash site", will be a suspect find. What if the MH370's original crash site was near Diego Garcia and almost most of the pieces were collected, put on a ship and dumped in the ocean thousands of miles away, and then "discovered" as the new crash site. Under such scenario, I do not expect the original Flight Data Recorder or the Cockpit Voice Recorders to be found in the so called newly discovered crash site of MH370, if at all. Too much time has gone by that anything is possible to hide the truth.


Actually no. According to the scientists, for the fragments to get caught in the Western Oceanic Currents which took them to Africa, then MH370 ended up ditching around the 35th parallel. This is according to The University of WA and CSIRO. Now Boeing, ATSB have stated that in order for this to be the case, it was a violent ditching from a Stall and Spiral Dive. It was not a controlled glide which would have added at least 200 air nms. If it ditched anywhere else, the debris would be washed up all over the Australian coastline. If it went further south it would end up in Tasmania and New Zealand. Which is where the original search was taking place btw.

So they are starting the search.

But the better news is this. They are relying on technology and every time they have technological advances they reopen the search. Covering 120,000 sq kms every 90 days as opposed to 2 years is a major leap forward which is a very huge thing for the authorities resulting in their confidence.


Except that, if the crash site was on the 35th parallel close to Australia, then one would have expected parts of the plane to wash up on the shores of Eastern part of Indian Ocean, given the currents and winds are on a counter-clockwise directions. If the crash site was near DG, then as expected, nothing would be found on the shores of Eastern Indian Ocean, but more likely on the shores of Western shores of Indian ocean. Of course, debris from a crash site on the 35th parallel would also eventually wash up on the coasts of Western Indian Ocean too. But why hasn't it also washed up on the Eastern shores also of the Indian Ocean??
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:24 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:There is nothing suspect about most of the 40 pieces found so far. They have been confirmed as belonging to MH370 and are held in a hangar in Perth.

Some of the parts even have official serial engravings and part numbers and these part numbers have been confirmed through the downed aircrafts official Flught and Engineering Manuals

Many organisations have had access too, including students from the University of WA.



Paphitis,

Let me clarify. I am not questioning the pieces already found in the Western parts of Indian Ocean as being suspect. I believe they are the pieces from MH370 and it fits well if the crash site was near Diego Garcia. What I am saying is, any new found pieces collectively in one area away from the Western Indian Ocean as being the "crash site", will be a suspect find. What if the MH370's original crash site was near Diego Garcia and almost most of the pieces were collected, put on a ship and dumped in the ocean thousands of miles away, and then "discovered" as the new crash site. Under such scenario, I do not expect the original Flight Data Recorder or the Cockpit Voice Recorders to be found in the so called newly discovered crash site of MH370, if at all. Too much time has gone by that anything is possible to hide the truth.


Actually no. According to the scientists, for the fragments to get caught in the Western Oceanic Currents which took them to Africa, then MH370 ended up ditching around the 35th parallel. This is according to The University of WA and CSIRO. Now Boeing, ATSB have stated that in order for this to be the case, it was a violent ditching from a Stall and Spiral Dive. It was not a controlled glide which would have added at least 200 air nms. If it ditched anywhere else, the debris would be washed up all over the Australian coastline. If it went further south it would end up in Tasmania and New Zealand. Which is where the original search was taking place btw.

So they are starting the search.

But the better news is this. They are relying on technology and every time they have technological advances they reopen the search. Covering 120,000 sq kms every 90 days as opposed to 2 years is a major leap forward which is a very huge thing for the authorities resulting in their confidence.


Except that, if the crash site was on the 35th parallel close to Australia, then one would have expected parts of the plane to wash up on the shores of Eastern part of Indian Ocean, given the currents and winds are on a counter-clockwise directions. If the crash site was near DG, then as expected, nothing would be found on the shores of Eastern Indian Ocean, but more likely on the shores of Western shores of Indian ocean. Of course, debris from a crash site on the 35th parallel would also eventually wash up on the coasts of Western Indian Ocean too. But why hasn't it also washed up on the Eastern shores also of the Indian Ocean??


They never said it was close to Australia, just at the 35th parallel according to the latest hypothesis due to the oceanic currents. So they are going to look there. This is significantly further north of the original search area as its northern extremity was at the 36th parallel.

There was one piece of debris that did wash up onto Australia but they couldn’t prove it was from MH370 like they did with the washed up African debris. This hypothesis is not something that has originated from ATSB, Inmarsat or Boeing. This is from the scientists at The University of WA and CSIRO. So they are going to see if they are correct.

But again, the real breakthrough is the technology. It will be the technology which will at the end save the day because if they can cover the ocean floor quickly, they will just keep looking till they find it.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Robin Hood » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:36 am

Paphitis:

In your rhumb line calculations have you taken into account that he had quite a lot of reserve fuel? He could have reached Garcia depending on his divert/alternate field?

IMO although Kikapu’s theory is plausible I think it is highly improbable. Yours likewise .

So, I will add my conspiracy theory: :roll: :wink:

The US knew where MH370 came down but have not released the satellite data because it would endanger their national security. Like they have with MH17! :roll: But there must have been quite a few operators that know ..... and could no doubt make use of the bribe money to sell the coordinates to one of these companies? To spend all that money on a vessel and the crew with a limited time to find it and a risk they will not make a dime ....... is a very big gamble to take unless you have information that gives you an advantage! :wink:

We shall see ..... maybe! But something about this is not right! :roll:

FYI:

Commercial Flights

Per ICAO Annex 6, Part I, section 4.3.6 "Fuel Requirements," airplanes should calculate their required fuel quantity as follows (summary;

• Taxi fuel
• Trip fuel (to reach intended destination)
• Contingency fuel (higher of 5% of "trip fuel" or 5 minutes of holding flight)
• Destination alternate fuel (to fly a missed and reach an alternate)
• Final reserve fuel (45 minutes of holding flight for reciprocating engines, 30 minutes for jets)
• Additional fuel (if needed to guarantee ability to reach an alternate with an engine failure or at lower altitude due to a pressurization loss)
• Discretionary fuel (if the pilot in command wants it)

General Aviation

For general aviation, ICAO Annex 6 Part II, section 2.2.3.6 "Fuel and oil supply" requires:

• For IFR, enough fuel to reach destination, then alternate (if required), plus 45 minutes
• For day VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 30 minutes
• For night VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 45 minutes
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:45 am

Robin Hood wrote:Paphitis:

In your rhumb line calculations have you taken into account that he had quite a lot of reserve fuel? He could have reached Garcia depending on his divert/alternate field?

IMO although Kikapu’s theory is plausible I think it is highly improbable. Yours likewise .

So, I will add my conspiracy theory: :roll: :wink:

The US knew where MH370 came down but have not released the satellite data because it would endanger their national security. Like they have with MH17! :roll: But there must have been quite a few operators that know ..... and could no doubt make use of the bribe money to sell the coordinates to one of these companies? To spend all that money on a vessel and the crew with a limited time to find it and a risk they will not make a dime ....... is a very big gamble to take unless you have information that gives you an advantage! :wink:

We shall see ..... maybe! But something about this is not right! :roll:

FYI:

Commercial Flights

Per ICAO Annex 6, Part I, section 4.3.6 "Fuel Requirements," airplanes should calculate their required fuel quantity as follows (summary;

• Taxi fuel
• Trip fuel (to reach intended destination)
• Contingency fuel (higher of 5% of "trip fuel" or 5 minutes of holding flight)
• Destination alternate fuel (to fly a missed and reach an alternate)
• Final reserve fuel (45 minutes of holding flight for reciprocating engines, 30 minutes for jets)
• Additional fuel (if needed to guarantee ability to reach an alternate with an engine failure or at lower altitude due to a pressurization loss)
• Discretionary fuel (if the pilot in command wants it)

General Aviation

For general aviation, ICAO Annex 6 Part II, section 2.2.3.6 "Fuel and oil supply" requires:

• For IFR, enough fuel to reach destination, then alternate (if required), plus 45 minutes
• For day VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 30 minutes
• For night VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 45 minutes


In any case, if the captain had intentions to hit DG, he would have taken on more fuel than needed to have normal operation to Beijing. I don't know if we know for sure how much fuel was taken for that flight.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:47 am

Yes I have taken into consideration of the Variable and Fixed Reserves. FR is only 30 minutes and VR is 1.1FR (Flight Fuel).

MH370 did about 40 minutes of Flight Time en route to Beijing, which is the Fixed Reserve, then you have the backtrack back to square 1 which is effectively another 500 clicks into wind so add another 100 clicks (based on averages). MH370 has now been burning flight fuel for the last 30 minutes so they are already about 30 minutes behind the eight ball.

Then you got the northerly track through the Straights of Malacca which is a northwesterly direction for a distance of over 1000 kms before getting around Bande Ace peninsula. Then they need to take a westerly heading for DG fighting the subtropical Jet Stream all the way adding more Air Miles to the journey. At least 100 nms for each 1 hour of flight time. They had no chance of getting to DG.

MH370 would not have made it.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:52 am

Kikapu wrote:
Robin Hood wrote:Paphitis:

In your rhumb line calculations have you taken into account that he had quite a lot of reserve fuel? He could have reached Garcia depending on his divert/alternate field?

IMO although Kikapu’s theory is plausible I think it is highly improbable. Yours likewise .

So, I will add my conspiracy theory: :roll: :wink:

The US knew where MH370 came down but have not released the satellite data because it would endanger their national security. Like they have with MH17! :roll: But there must have been quite a few operators that know ..... and could no doubt make use of the bribe money to sell the coordinates to one of these companies? To spend all that money on a vessel and the crew with a limited time to find it and a risk they will not make a dime ....... is a very big gamble to take unless you have information that gives you an advantage! :wink:

We shall see ..... maybe! But something about this is not right! :roll:

FYI:

Commercial Flights

Per ICAO Annex 6, Part I, section 4.3.6 "Fuel Requirements," airplanes should calculate their required fuel quantity as follows (summary;

• Taxi fuel
• Trip fuel (to reach intended destination)
• Contingency fuel (higher of 5% of "trip fuel" or 5 minutes of holding flight)
• Destination alternate fuel (to fly a missed and reach an alternate)
• Final reserve fuel (45 minutes of holding flight for reciprocating engines, 30 minutes for jets)
• Additional fuel (if needed to guarantee ability to reach an alternate with an engine failure or at lower altitude due to a pressurization loss)
• Discretionary fuel (if the pilot in command wants it)

General Aviation

For general aviation, ICAO Annex 6 Part II, section 2.2.3.6 "Fuel and oil supply" requires:

• For IFR, enough fuel to reach destination, then alternate (if required), plus 45 minutes
• For day VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 30 minutes
• For night VFR, enough fuel to reach destination plus 45 minutes


In any case, if the captain had intentions to hit DG, he would have taken on more fuel than needed to have normal operation to Beijing. I don't know if we know for sure how much fuel was taken for that flight.


No that is not the case. They were carrying FR and VR only. No holding due to weather or traffic. There were no active INTER forecast or TEMPO forecast hold fuel requirements.

They have the load sheet.

Also, the Captain can't just say I will carry a bit extra today for the hell of it. The Regulated Take-Off Tables tell the captain how much fuel is required and the Load and Trim Sheet are filled out by Ground Crew.

In addition, the B777 is Max Landing Weight Limited so in order to land at Beijing, the Captain would have had to do a Fuel Dump and the trim sheet would have been illegal and not signed off. It's not as if you can actually fill up the tanks on these things for short sectors because that is not the case at all. You have to carry min fuel to land because the burn is low.

BTW, this is probably the most important base there is.

Image

And it is about 100 times more important than Diego Garcia and MH370 had enough fuel to reach it.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:02 pm

However, no extra fuel was needed to reach DG than it was needed to reach Beijing with reserve fuel or to the presumed crash site which was searched for months.
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Re: What happened to flight MH370?

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:03 pm

Kikapu wrote:However, no extra fuel was needed to reach DG than it was needed to reach Beijing with reserve fuel or to the presumed crash site which was searched for months.


Yes they would have required significantly more fuel to reach Diego Garcia. I am roughly calculating that they would be anywhere between 500 and 800 kms short.

They had a Flight Time of 6.5 hours, and were carrying 7.5 hours in fuel which is FR + VR only.

No exra fuel.

Another overlooked factor is that MH370 was at 5000FT all the way around Bande Ace obviously in an effort to avoid Secondary Surveillance Radar. That would have been another significant fuel penalty. These engines are not efficient at 5000FT. And it would have had to zig zag south to avoid Sri Lankan and Indian Airspace as well to avoid detection. After passing India can it select a heading as the crow flies.

Plus, it is the stupidest plan ever. If for some reason the Pilots wanted to get to unmanned DG, then they would have selected a better flight such as KL to Dubai for instance. No stuffing around. Selecting a flight that was bound for China is just totally stupid. And way too hard avoiding all the SSR and Primary Radars everywhere which they would not need to worry about as much if they were en-route to somewhere more sensible.
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