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Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

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Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:55 am

Looks like 2018 could start with a bang ........... this seems to have been the main topic of the news program’s on Cyprus TV? Nothing but Turkey, Turkey, Turkey ....... couldn’t understand the rest of it!

GAS WAR - EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN MAY BE SCENE OF FIRST CONFLICT OF 2018

The eastern Mediterranean is expected to witness the first conflict of 2018, as developments at the end of 2017 are signaling worsening relationships between Turkey and the Greek Cypriot-Greece-Israel-Egypt bloc. Territorial disputes over natural gas and newly discovered hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern Mediterranean basin are the reason.

Up until a few years ago, the hope was that these hydrocarbon reserves would offer a real opportunity for a peaceful settlement of the Cyprus conflict. But these optimistic hopes vanished with both Turks and Greek Cypriots unilaterally speeding up exploration and drilling operations.

In 2004, the European Union had declared the Greek Cypriots the sole entity representing the island of Cyprus and accepted it as an EU member. Feeling that its hand has been strengthened following the EU decision, the Greek Cypriots claimed the right of natural resources exploration in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around Cyprus.

http://www.blacklistednews.com/Gas_War_-_Eastern_Mediterranean_may_be_scene_of_first_conflict_of_2018/62422/0/38/38/Y/M.html


...... and to add insult to injury, the last paragraph says:

“In sum — and in comparison to 2017 — one will witness more eventful scenes in the eastern Mediterranean in 2018. The only actor that could mediate between Ankara and Nicosia is not Washington but Moscow, the new shining star of the Middle East.” :roll:
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Paphitis » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:35 pm

And Russia will not be in support of Cyprus because the Hydrocarbons are under licence to Israeli, American and French Oil and Gas companies.

The issue is one of International Law as per UNCLOS - the same as the South China Sea.

The Israelis asnd Americans and the French do not need ANY Russian involvement, and will blow the Turks to smithereens before they get in their way.

So the Russians and and Turks can go FUCK THEMSELVES!

In addition, blacklisted isn't a reputable source especially when they proclaim that Russia is the only that can mediate. Of course they want a war to destabilize the Americans, French and Israelis. Cypriots are about to get a rude awakening about Russia's role in the Mediterranean and they will have their eyes opened.

Americans don't need a mediator. They have the 6th Fleet.

But of course, you would love for Cyprus to be compromised just to place Russia into an advantageous position in the East Mediterranean, even if it jeopardizes the dejure legalities of UNCLOS and the Republics Natural Resources. The minute Cyprus negotiates over its Natural Resources is the minute they have placed their legal rights in question and it isn't going to happen.

So...

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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Robin Hood » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:54 pm

I am but the messenger!

In addition, blacklisted isn't a reputable source especially when they proclaim that Russia is the only that can mediate
.

Blacklisted News is not the source, simply the server on which an article was published. The source was Al Monitor and the article appears to reflect what the Cyprus news services are talking about. I realized it would not be reported in 'The Alice Springs Bugle' ...... but I thought you would be interested anyway. :lol: :lol:

The one thing that worries me would be if the Cypriots decided to call in Israel or the US to fight a sea battle with the Turkish Navy on their behalf. The Turks could just decide to move the Green Line down to Limassol sea front! :o
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby repulsewarrior » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

In 2018, Turkey will have its first brand-new drilling vessel, the Deepsea Metro II. According to navigation data, the ship left Norway's Hoylandsbygda port some two weeks ago and is currently sailing west of Portugal. It is expected to arrive in Turkey on Dec. 31. The critical question now is whether the Turkish navy will be providing military escorts for the new drilling vessel.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origina ... z52UqlNxTy


...this is where the popcorn will be useful; real drama.
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Paphitis » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:09 am

Robin Hood wrote:I am but the messenger!

In addition, blacklisted isn't a reputable source especially when they proclaim that Russia is the only that can mediate
.

Blacklisted News is not the source, simply the server on which an article was published. The source was Al Monitor and the article appears to reflect what the Cyprus news services are talking about. I realized it would not be reported in 'The Alice Springs Bugle' ...... but I thought you would be interested anyway. :lol: :lol:

The one thing that worries me would be if the Cypriots decided to call in Israel or the US to fight a sea battle with the Turkish Navy on their behalf. The Turks could just decide to move the Green Line down to Limassol sea front! :o


Of course the Americans and Israelis will protect their interests.

And of course you would absolutely love for the Turks to move the Green Line to Limassol. But why stop there. It is my opinion that it would be better for us for them to attempt a complete take over of the entire island.
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Pyrpolizer » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:35 pm

The fact that Turkey would attempt to steal hydrocarbons from Cyprus’s EEZ was known a long time ago, and in fact I did try to initiate a conversation here:

cyprus45631-260.html#p862171

We did have some exchange of views with one of the few forumers left who can think politically,
my friend Kikapu i.e.

So now we know for a fact that Turkey bought it’s own platform and she’s going to use it.

RH wrote: The one thing that worries me would be if the Cypriots decided to call in Israel or the US to fight a sea battle with the Turkish Navy on their behalf.


That’s too naïve to even think about it. Nobody is going to do someone else’s war. However everyone (including the Americans the Israelis the Egyprians the French -EVERYONE including Cyprus) will be damaged if Turkey just starts drilling in an effort to steal hydrocarbons.

There’s a high possibility someone else’s pool will be affected. Just consider what happens in the Gulf. There are many pools over there most of them communicating with each other. Some of the Gulf countries could only get gas whereas other could get both gas and oil. However getting the gas out reduces the pressure making it impossible for other countries to get the oil out. It’s a known fact that Saudi Arabia actually pays neighboring countries so that they won’t extract gas.

Don’t even for a minute think that the agreements Cyprus has already signed with neighboring countries concern only the geographical limits of the EEZ. They also include a lot of technical stuff in how the exploration is going to proceed in a way that won’t affect the interests of neighbors. Even the rate at which the hydrocarbons will be extract has to be agreed during the process.

Now imagine Turkey messing into that. She will simply be ordered to stop. Most probably by the Americans. Do you think Turkey has the guts to disobey? Let her try. It’s a long time now we are expecting to see Turkey getting cracked into pieces.


RH wrote: The Turks could just decide to move the Green Line down to Limassol sea front!


The only excuse I can find for someone throwing such a statement is the fact that you haven’t served in the army and hence you have no idea of how wars get started on the first place, then how they are carried on, and how the "winner" eventually establishes control. Furthermore I ‘ve noticed in an older post that you thought the Cypriot National Guard as it currently is- full of conscripts- should have insignificant power.

Secondly you luck the necessary knowledge as to the rights of Turkey over Cyprus. Turkey never had a right to protect her own establishment of a pseudo state in Cyprus. The one and only right she ever had which was to take action to protect the constitutional order of Cyprus!!
We all know that the 1974 "operation" presumably started to re-establish the constitutional order and ended up to a full scale Invasion with ethnic cleansing stealing of lands and properties, killing thousands of Greek Cypriots etc. Do you think the GCs will ever accept another such scum?
I ‘m not going to go into the details of neither the military issue nor the political issue of such an act but mark my words, if Turkey would ever attempt such a thing, she’s is going to get such a blow from the very first day from the Cypriot National Guard alone, that she would remember for eternity. All we have to watch for, is the British playing their usual dirty games behind our backs.
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:12 pm

Pyrpolizer wrote: All we have to watch for, is the British playing their usual dirty games behind our backs.


A true concern. This likelihood makes me so sad. From what I've seen, the British public are too easily duped and led by their government. Soon they will be hungrier than ever as sovereign-Brexit bites home. All we can hope for is that they do not negatively interfere .... once again.

For sure, help will never come from the UK. Therefore, the EU needs to make it a priority to first remove the British Bases from Cyprus to minimize any help they are most likely to give Turkey should some strategic plans be put into action.
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Paphitis » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:17 pm

Pyrpolizer wrote:
The only excuse I can find for someone throwing such a statement is the fact that you haven’t served in the army and hence you have no idea of how wars get started on the first place, then how they are carried on, and how the "winner" eventually establishes control. Furthermore I ‘ve noticed in an older post that you thought the Cypriot National Guard as it currently is- full of conscripts- should have insignificant power.

Secondly you luck the necessary knowledge as to the rights of Turkey over Cyprus. Turkey never had a right to protect her own establishment of a pseudo state in Cyprus. The one and only right she ever had which was to take action to protect the constitutional order of Cyprus!!
We all know that the 1974 "operation" presumably started to re-establish the constitutional order and ended up to a full scale Invasion with ethnic cleansing stealing of lands and properties, killing thousands of Greek Cypriots etc. Do you think the GCs will ever accept another such scum?
I ‘m not going to go into the details of neither the military issue nor the political issue of such an act but mark my words, if Turkey would ever attempt such a thing, she’s is going to get such a blow from the very first day from the Cypriot National Guard alone, that she would remember for eternity. All we have to watch for, is the British playing their usual dirty games behind our backs.


Fully agree that Turkey will end up with a very bloodied nose and potentially, they could lose control over all of Cyprus from the CNG alone. It has fairly solid capabilities at fighting a war on the island, and should Turkey overcome them and take the entire island, their worries are by no means over. On the contrary, the nightmare for them would have only just begun. This is precisely how big powers are at the end of the day defeated by a smaller and inferior opponent. If only the Turks were that stupid to move the Green line to Limassol and take over the entire island. But, sadly, they aren't that silly.

I think Turkey wont be allowed to drill in the Cyprus EEZ and even if they tried, they will be told to stop by the Americans. If they disobey that, they will find themselves in a lot of bother because the Americans will just cancel Billions worth of Arms Deals or hold them up. There is a lot of things the Americans can do which the Turks won't like. Armenian Genocide Recognition is another. F-35 JSF delays as well, and even an embargo.

If the Turks send a Ship to start drilling, the Americans will just move them on.

As for the British, I do not think they are of any concern on this issue as they will not be supporting Turkey and going against US/French/Israeli drilling interests. They have no claim on the EEZ whatsoever and they themselves know this. In fact, their bases are pretty much joint facilities with the Americans and not just them either. The Americans can utilize the facilities in the SBA's whenever they like and Agios Nikolaos is in fact a Joint Facility for 5 countries now in the Echelon 5 eyes network.

It's the Russians you will need to watch. just like in 1974 (Yes I am not joking) the Russians are wanting Turkey to stoke the fires over Cyprus and perhaps create a war. That time, the Russians wanted a war between Greece and Turkey to weaken NATO. Russia was no friend to either Greece, Turkey or even Cyprus because Cyprus was just the pawn or sacrificial lamb. Now Russia is developing a huge alliance with the Turks. That is what Cyprus needs to watch.

Turkey is now the first NATO country to start buying Russian equipment. They have ordered the S400. Remember when they threatened Cyprus over the deployment of the S300 missiles on the island and as a result ended up in Crete? Well, it's ok for them to buy the S400 and deploy them in the occupied. When the Americans sell weapons to the Turks, they forbid their deployment in the occupied and whenever American F-16s are in Cyprus the Americans have a sissy fit and keep threatening the Turks with Arms embargoes because it is ILLEGAL for American Weapons to be used in Cyprus against the RoC. There is no such thing from the Russians. The Russians are going to FUCK Cyprus.

http://www.janes.com/article/68205/turk ... 0-purchase
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby GreekIslandGirl » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:19 pm

The most consistent alliance over the last century and a half, as far as Cyprus is concerned, has been that between Britain and Turkey. Recently, Britain's role in the EU was one of presenting obstacles to Cyprus and Greece, economically and politically. For example, instead of allowing sustainable EU-growth and integration, they pressed for instability by supporting Turkey-membership. But most destructively, Britain thwarted plans for the build up of the essential EU Army which will reduce NATO control in Europe and offer the best possibility for ousting the Turks from Cyprus and minimizing, from Turkey, threats to Greece and Aegean oil explorations.

Finally, the ultimate reason for Greece and Cyprus being in the EU can materialize with the help of Brexit ....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... plans.html

The EU Army! 8) S.A.F.E.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchroni ... ces_Europe

And, sadly, Britain has shot itself in the foot. Bang!

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-e ... 50571.html
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Re: Looks like 2018 could start with a bang!

Postby Paphitis » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:32 pm

GreekIslandGirl wrote:The most consistent alliance over the last century and a half, as far as Cyprus is concerned, has been that between Britain and Turkey. Recently, Britain's role in the EU was one of presenting obstacles to Cyprus and Greece, economically and politically. For example, instead of allowing sustainable EU-growth and integration, they pressed for instability by supporting Turkey-membership. But most destructively, Britain thwarted plans for the build up of the essential EU Army which will reduce NATO control in Europe and offer the best possibility for ousting the Turks from Cyprus and minimizing, from Turkey, threats to Greece and Aegean oil explorations.

Finally, the ultimate reason for Greece and Cyprus being in the EU can materialize with the help of Brexit ....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... plans.html

The EU Army! 8) S.A.F.E.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchroni ... ces_Europe

And, sadly, Britain has shot itself in the foot. Bang!

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-e ... 50571.html


It was the EU that has supported Turkish EU entry not Britain on its own accord.

One of the reasons for BREXIT, is because the Little Englanders don't want Tirkey in the EU as well as some others because they all end up going to the Britain and Germany.

I don't think any so called British and Turkish friendship is actually very consistent when the Turks are falling out with everyone beginning with the Israelis and the Americans over the supply of arms to the YPG in Syria.

And no one is going to be establishing a European Military. That is just pure insanity as France and Germany will need to forego their sovereignty. That isn't going to happen. They have their NATO alliance where they have their own independent military.

Pyro is right in that no one is going to be fighting Cyprus war against Turkey unless there is something in it for them. In Turkey's case, the US could very easily teach Turkey a lesson just by deploying a peacekeeping operation on the island, but going to war with Turkey is not going to happen.

Synchronized Armed Forces is EXACTLY what NATO achieves for Europe.
Last edited by Paphitis on Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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