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Boeing 737 MAX+

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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:04 am

More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:08 pm

Kikapu wrote:More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/


I wouldn't worry about what IATA says. It's their job to exaggerate to protect the interests of member airlines which get government funding.

Once it's all over, air travel is going to come back with a vengeance. demand will be so high, Airlines will double their airfares and price gouge until they get all their pilots back up to speed.

It will take airlines 12 to 18 months to get their pilots back on the perch within the cyclic program. Everyone needs to be checked.

Plus, there have been thousands of resignations worldwide at the experienced end among the older demographic. Pus natural attrition with no one coming in from the other end.

It's going to be chaos and consumers will be hit VERY HARD. I anticipate airfares to at least double...Airlines are going to take full advantage of this.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:26 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/


I wouldn't worry about what IATA says. It's their job to exaggerate to protect the interests of member airlines which get government funding.

Once it's all over, air travel is going to come back with a vengeance. demand will be so high, Airlines will double their airfares and price gouge until they get all their pilots back up to speed.

It will take airlines 12 to 18 months to get their pilots back on the perch within the cyclic program. Everyone needs to be checked.

Plus, there have been thousands of resignations worldwide at the experienced end among the older demographic. Pus natural attrition with no one coming in from the other end.

It's going to be chaos and consumers will be hit VERY HARD. I anticipate airfares to at least double...Airlines are going to take full advantage of this.


Only if people want to fly. When prices goes up with the airlines, hotels, car rentals, restaurants and income is dodgy, don’t expect the industry to return back on a dime.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:48 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/


I wouldn't worry about what IATA says. It's their job to exaggerate to protect the interests of member airlines which get government funding.

Once it's all over, air travel is going to come back with a vengeance. demand will be so high, Airlines will double their airfares and price gouge until they get all their pilots back up to speed.

It will take airlines 12 to 18 months to get their pilots back on the perch within the cyclic program. Everyone needs to be checked.

Plus, there have been thousands of resignations worldwide at the experienced end among the older demographic. Pus natural attrition with no one coming in from the other end.

It's going to be chaos and consumers will be hit VERY HARD. I anticipate airfares to at least double...Airlines are going to take full advantage of this.


Only if people want to fly. When prices goes up with the airlines, hotels, car rentals, restaurants and income is dodgy, don’t expect the industry to return back on a dime.


That's the thing. They do want to fly. After this year, and presuming we are over COVID due to vaccine, and restrictions are lifted, people want to fly.

That's the first thing people will do. They will book flights for holidays and/or to visit loved ones. That is what I believe. We all believe this in the industry. We also anticipate that demand for flights will far outsrip the capability of airlines to fulfill. the planes are there, but the pilots are not. Not enough crews, so many planes will remain grounded as the airlines need time to ramp up. not the case that planes and services can be re-instated the next day. 65% of pilots are now non current. Within 2 months from now, 90% of pilots will be non current.

So what will happen is airline tickets will double, if not more. Consumers will be in for a rude shock. It's going to be expensive. but over time, as services are -re-instated, prices will start to fall.

I'm in a situation where I am non-current. In March, I think they are also suss with me that I am about to pull the pin because I took 2 leave days for 2 Reserve days to go to Melbourne for an interview at the US Embassy. I got a phone call about it as I was catching a tram from Saint Kilda to the Embassy. Back then they were offering me a spot as a Sim Checker as well for the pay rise as a ploy to retain me. Going in the training apartment is the last thing I want to do now irrespective of money. I won't see a real plane for 12 months.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:06 am

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/


I wouldn't worry about what IATA says. It's their job to exaggerate to protect the interests of member airlines which get government funding.

Once it's all over, air travel is going to come back with a vengeance. demand will be so high, Airlines will double their airfares and price gouge until they get all their pilots back up to speed.

It will take airlines 12 to 18 months to get their pilots back on the perch within the cyclic program. Everyone needs to be checked.

Plus, there have been thousands of resignations worldwide at the experienced end among the older demographic. Pus natural attrition with no one coming in from the other end.

It's going to be chaos and consumers will be hit VERY HARD. I anticipate airfares to at least double...Airlines are going to take full advantage of this.


Only if people want to fly. When prices goes up with the airlines, hotels, car rentals, restaurants and income is dodgy, don’t expect the industry to return back on a dime.


That's the thing. They do want to fly. After this year, and presuming we are over COVID due to vaccine, and restrictions are lifted, people want to fly.

That's the first thing people will do. They will book flights for holidays and/or to visit loved ones. That is what I believe. We all believe this in the industry. We also anticipate that demand for flights will far outsrip the capability of airlines to fulfill. the planes are there, but the pilots are not. Not enough crews, so many planes will remain grounded as the airlines need time to ramp up. not the case that planes and services can be re-instated the next day. 65% of pilots are now non current. Within 2 months from now, 90% of pilots will be non current.

So what will happen is airline tickets will double, if not more. Consumers will be in for a rude shock. It's going to be expensive. but over time, as services are -re-instated, prices will start to fall.

I'm in a situation where I am non-current. In March, I think they are also suss with me that I am about to pull the pin because I took 2 leave days for 2 Reserve days to go to Melbourne for an interview at the US Embassy. I got a phone call about it as I was catching a tram from Saint Kilda to the Embassy. Back then they were offering me a spot as a Sim Checker as well for the pay rise as a ploy to retain me. Going in the training apartment is the last thing I want to do now irrespective of money. I won't see a real plane for 12 months.


You have just highlighted the problems, that if most pilots are going to be non-current in the near future while most are sitting at home right now, there is going to be a huge back-log to get the pilots back in their seats in the cockpit and planes back in the air. Yes, the seat capacity will be reduced dramatically and the seat prices will go up when all the restrictions are lifted and effective vaccine is found. At the moment that hasn't happened yet. In fact, the prices are cheaper now than they were before the pandemic on the San Francisco-Zurich route. However, we do not have direct flights at the moment on that route as there aren't enough people wanting to fly or can fly without having to go into self quarantine in the USA and also after returning back to Switzerland. Swiss had originally added direct flights starting August 3rd for every other 1-2 days, but were all cancelled due to low demand. They will now try the same in September, but I am not holding my breath.

This year I am content to travel withing Europe by car or a camper if there are no lockdown again or just travel within Switzerland. Both are great options instead the thought of getting stuck too far away from home if things go bad with the flights.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:25 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:More bad news on aviation in general.

IATA does not expect air travel to return to what it was in 2019 until 2024.

I guess reducing the carbon footprint from aviation fuel to help the planet will get much needed help from Covid-19. Who would have thought!

It seems that living on excess for those in the west for the most part is likely to take a step or two back. Maybe that is a good thing, to slow down life just a bit from our day to day lives living to the MAX.

I for one is happier not to arrange flights, car rentals and hotels for a while and just take it easy and stay loose.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... 2024-iata/


I wouldn't worry about what IATA says. It's their job to exaggerate to protect the interests of member airlines which get government funding.

Once it's all over, air travel is going to come back with a vengeance. demand will be so high, Airlines will double their airfares and price gouge until they get all their pilots back up to speed.

It will take airlines 12 to 18 months to get their pilots back on the perch within the cyclic program. Everyone needs to be checked.

Plus, there have been thousands of resignations worldwide at the experienced end among the older demographic. Pus natural attrition with no one coming in from the other end.

It's going to be chaos and consumers will be hit VERY HARD. I anticipate airfares to at least double...Airlines are going to take full advantage of this.


Only if people want to fly. When prices goes up with the airlines, hotels, car rentals, restaurants and income is dodgy, don’t expect the industry to return back on a dime.


That's the thing. They do want to fly. After this year, and presuming we are over COVID due to vaccine, and restrictions are lifted, people want to fly.

That's the first thing people will do. They will book flights for holidays and/or to visit loved ones. That is what I believe. We all believe this in the industry. We also anticipate that demand for flights will far outsrip the capability of airlines to fulfill. the planes are there, but the pilots are not. Not enough crews, so many planes will remain grounded as the airlines need time to ramp up. not the case that planes and services can be re-instated the next day. 65% of pilots are now non current. Within 2 months from now, 90% of pilots will be non current.

So what will happen is airline tickets will double, if not more. Consumers will be in for a rude shock. It's going to be expensive. but over time, as services are -re-instated, prices will start to fall.

I'm in a situation where I am non-current. In March, I think they are also suss with me that I am about to pull the pin because I took 2 leave days for 2 Reserve days to go to Melbourne for an interview at the US Embassy. I got a phone call about it as I was catching a tram from Saint Kilda to the Embassy. Back then they were offering me a spot as a Sim Checker as well for the pay rise as a ploy to retain me. Going in the training apartment is the last thing I want to do now irrespective of money. I won't see a real plane for 12 months.


You have just highlighted the problems, that if most pilots are going to be non-current in the near future while most are sitting at home right now, there is going to be a huge back-log to get the pilots back in their seats in the cockpit and planes back in the air. Yes, the seat capacity will be reduced dramatically and the seat prices will go up when all the restrictions are lifted and effective vaccine is found. At the moment that hasn't happened yet. In fact, the prices are cheaper now than they were before the pandemic on the San Francisco-Zurich route. However, we do not have direct flights at the moment on that route as there aren't enough people wanting to fly or can fly without having to go into self quarantine in the USA and also after returning back to Switzerland. Swiss had originally added direct flights starting August 3rd for every other 1-2 days, but were all cancelled due to low demand. They will now try the same in September, but I am not holding my breath.

This year I am content to travel withing Europe by car or a camper if there are no lockdown again or just travel within Switzerland. Both are great options instead the thought of getting stuck too far away from home if things go bad with the flights.


I was speaking to my friend and QANTAS will take 12 months to get all their International guys up and running. I presume the domestic fleet is the same as it's virtually a different department, different simulators, and training department.

That will also involve sending pilots to US, Ireland, Latvia, provided there is capacity there.

The other big problem is recruitment. What will happen is thousands of pilots will be hired and they will be waiting months for a check. getting them to sim will be no problem, getting an endorsement won't be a problem, but they won't get checked and probably end up on the line for line training and they could be there for 500 hours before they actually get checked to line. They will only be allowed to fly with experienced Line Trainer Captains.

It will be chaos but the airlines are good at chaos. We do it well. 8)

Captains will be the first to be checked as 2 captains can fly together but 2 FOs can't fly. Then Senior FOs, and last junior FOs. Then there will be a recruitment back log. Airlines will still fill their rosters with pilots and fly new recruits on the line with Line Trainers without being checked. Or have them just be Second Officers for a while or Cruise Pilots.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:26 am

What the airlines have in their favour in making pilots currents, is that the demand for flights by the public will only increase gradually, which will allow the airlines the time to also bring crew and aircraft online gradually also. The question is, when will the real start begin for the demands to rise significantly and for the airlines to get their pilots and planes ready. IATA's predictions may not be too far off the mark that it may take until 2024 to get back to where the aviation industry was in 2019. It was originally predicted to be in 2023, so already they had added another 1 year to the delay.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:07 pm

Kikapu wrote:What the airlines have in their favour in making pilots currents, is that the demand for flights by the public will only increase gradually, which will allow the airlines the time to also bring crew and aircraft online gradually also. The question is, when will the real start begin for the demands to rise significantly and for the airlines to get their pilots and planes ready. IATA's predictions may not be too far off the mark that it may take until 2024 to get back to where the aviation industry was in 2019. It was originally predicted to be in 2023, so already they had added another 1 year to the delay.


The airlines will make sure of it by increasing fares. The demand will be there, so the only thing airlines can do is raise fares and that is what is going to happen for as long as demand outstrips supply or capacity.

I'm a bit more optimistic than IATA. As soon as a vaccine becomes commercially available, everything ramps up. Pilots and engineers back in the winning circle holding the airlines over a barrel.

Recruitment would start pretty much immediately because there is a massive black hole to fill and I don't think there are enough. So big packages will be on offer.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Robin Hood » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:02 am

Paphitis:
The airlines will make sure of it by increasing fares. The demand will be there, so the only thing airlines can do is raise fares and that is what is going to happen for as long as demand outstrips supply or capacity.

I'm a bit more optimistic than IATA. As soon as a vaccine becomes commercially available, everything ramps up. Pilots and engineers back in the winning circle holding the airlines over a barrel.

Recruitment would start pretty much immediately because there is a massive black hole to fill and I don't think there are enough. So big packages will be on offer.

You are even dumber than I thought you were! Do you really think once/if they find a vaccine for this virus everything will be back to normal? What is happening now, day after day, is just the beginning and if I were you I would hang the uniform up in the wardrobe in mothballs and buy some overalls! There is a greater chance you will never fly again than your rather wild comments on aviation even remotely becoming a reality!

The virus was the trigger for a series of events that has basically changed the World forever. Things will never return to the way they were even six months ago and we have yet to see the full impact! There is a financial tsunami on the horizon which is going to devastate the US dominated banking system and the markets. But , it will have a far lesser impact on those countries like China and Russia than it will on the US/UK and their associates.

It all comes down to the way western banking works compared to the banking system in China. I pointed out to you many of the pitfalls of the western banking system, some years ago but you thought you knew far better than me what is was all about. Now the ‘chooks’ are coming home to roost.

The only way the west will get out of this is to adopt the Chinese system of State owned/run Banks who have the sole right to create currency ..... and that will take the western banks down anyway, so the Banke'rs will strenuously resist any attempt to change their system. The Bankers can fool you and most of the western population because most don’t have a clue how it works!

I won’t bother with detail’s .... it would be like trying to teach a five year old quantum maths. :roll:
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:06 am

You stick to your knowledge of Quantum Physics and I will stick with my knowledge on flying planes.

I am booked in the sim at 21st of August at 2:00AM. yeh 2:00 AM because it's hard to get slots and everyone is booking them to keep pilots up to speed.

I am fine. I fly RPT but mainly Corporate (Bizjets) and we work for the Fed Government, so we are 50% shielded with a contracts with Fed gov, Queensland, NSW and Victoria. Asa result, we are in a much better position than the airlines.

So even if our RPT services get shattered, we can exist on our contracts and corporate arm.

So back to your Quantum Physics.

So go back to your scare mongering. I do not share your negativity, doom and gloom. Whilst the industry might find itself in trouble for now, it isn't going to be a permanent thing and neither will this virus last forever. Worst case scenario, is it will become endemic and we have to live with it like we live with the flu, but it isn't going to wipe out humanity back to the stone age and no one is prepared to be in permanent lock down and unable to travel. Most likely scenario is a vaccine - and there are already 4 or 5 prototypes in testing in US, Germany, UK, Australia, and Japan.
Last edited by Paphitis on Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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