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[Robin Hood]

You stick to your knowledge of Quantum Physics and I will stick with my knowledge on flying planes.

I am booked in the sim at 21st of August at 2:00AM. yeh 2:00 AM because it's hard to get slots and everyone is booking them to keep pilots up to speed.

I am fine. I fly RPT but mainly Corporate (Bizjets) and we work for the Fed Government, so we are 50% shielded with a contracts with Fed gov, Queensland, NSW and Victoria. As a result, we are in a much better position than the airlines.

So back to your Quantum Physics.

So go back to your scare mongering.

No it is not scare mongering ..... I just posted a reasoned prediction advised by most financial/economic experts, of a coming financial/banking tsunami which will greatly affect all of us in the sphere of Western banking influence. Pilots are not exempt!

Your reply shows why it is pointless trying to explain to you ......... you can fly an aeroplane (BTW: so can I ) .... so that makes you an expert on economics!

I will remind you when it starts to fall apart which will be toward the end of 2020 and early 2021 and it will be downhill from there on in and is predictable.

[Paphitis]

You stick to your knowledge of Quantum Physics and I will stick with my knowledge on flying planes.

I am booked in the sim at 21st of August at 2:00AM. yeh 2:00 AM because it's hard to get slots and everyone is booking them to keep pilots up to speed.

I am fine. I fly RPT but mainly Corporate (Bizjets) and we work for the Fed Government, so we are 50% shielded with a contracts with Fed gov, Queensland, NSW and Victoria. As a result, we are in a much better position than the airlines.

So back to your Quantum Physics.

So go back to your scare mongering.

No it is not scare mongering ..... I just posted a reasoned prediction advised by most financial/economic experts, of a coming financial/banking tsunami which will greatly affect all of us in the sphere of Western banking influence. Pilots are not exempt!

Your reply shows why it is pointless trying to explain to you ......... you can fly an aeroplane (BTW: so can I ) .... so that makes you an expert on economics!

I will remind you when it starts to fall apart which will be toward the end of 2020 and early 2021 and it will be downhill from there on in and is predictable.

Every man and there dog has their personal predictions but your doom and gloom prediction about the aviation industry is unrealistic.

Financially, the small operators may fall by the wayside. I am lucky to be working for a company that has no debt and is run by 3 brothers. 2 Silks and the other that was in the RAAF all their life. We buy our planes with cash. And we own our fleet of 18. Plus we do our maintenance in house with facilities in Canberra, and Brisbane.

Great, you can fly a Warrior. Well no problem. Right now I can't even fly that because I'm on a CASA instrument or CAR 247 cyclic program. But you can't either because you haven't had a biennial as a private pilot. I still get my salary, even though I am not current and will be back on roster by late August.

Most people are staying positive, and there is only so long the world can maintain this lock down approach before it is no longer viable. Better hope for the vaccine.

BTW, it will be the consumer or the public who will suffer if a few small fry go down. the big sharks will always pounce and have the money to provide the capacity and fill the gap, but the problem consumer's have is that the big companies will monopolize the market and price their tickets in a less competitive market.

Virgin Australia, QANTAS' main competitor nearly went bankrupt. If it did, it leaves QANTAS to monopolize everything and they would have done it too. They got the money to do it. But prices would go through the roof. End result, not good for the public. VA got taken over by an American Investment Bank than heavens because the friggin Chy-nese wanted it. So they fight on with a Big Bank right behind them.

[Robin Hood]

You don’t get it at all! You seem to think the only problem is COVID-19!

The airline industry is simply another commercial company with a product/service to sell. That requires ......... customers! You may be OK if all you do is fly politicians, ministers and other high-flyers with plenty of money, around Australia like an airborne UBER taxi, but regular commercial airlines with defined slots need real fare paying passengers to remain viable and that is now under serious threat. That is what is missing from your prediction!

It is not your ability to fly that is being questioned simply the fact that it is the coming economic storm that will have an effect on ALL travel, particularly holiday flights, many business flights and cruises. No money = hard times and non essential travel and other luxuries, are the first to go.

Modern IT systems make the need for business flying to meet face-to-face, no longer always a necessity it can all be done without even leaving your office desk.

If Trump can run America with tweets on Twitter and the constant issue of Presidential Decree’s ..... anything is possible!

[Paphitis]

You don’t get it at all! You seem to think the only problem is COVID-19!

The airline industry is simply another commercial company with a product/service to sell. That requires ......... customers! You may be OK if all you do is fly politicians, ministers and other high-flyers with plenty of money, around Australia like an airborne UBER taxi, but regular commercial airlines with defined slots need real fare paying passengers to remain viable and that is now under serious threat. That is what is missing from your prediction!

It is not your ability to fly that is being questioned simply the fact that it is the coming economic storm that will have an effect on ALL travel, particularly holiday flights, many business flights and cruises. No money = hard times and non essential travel and other luxuries, are the first to go.

Modern IT systems make the need for business flying to meet face-to-face, no longer always a necessity it can all be done without even leaving your office desk.

If Trump can run America with tweets on Twitter and the constant issue of Presidential Decree’s ..... anything is possible!

It isn't a very difficult product to see.

Countries rely on their aviation industry. Think countries like USA, Chy-na, Russia, Canada, Australia, India and so on. There are plenty of customers. We are no longer a luxury like in the 502s and 60s, but a global necessity to ship goods and services and people around the globe.

COVID is the problem. Once it's all over, our biggest problem will be the inability to meet demand because COVID has decimated the already short pilot population. Pilot shortage will only be even more chronic even if we only return to 70%. Pilots are resigning, because of COVID, and no one coming through. the only thing that will lead to is a windfall to pilots who will dictate employment terms. It's been like that since 2000.

I had met a young man who is going through his training and the parents came up to me. I told them to stick to it and get qualified as soon as possible. This is the best time to get ready and get qualified for the young ones. That's my opinion, and it's shared by colleagues.

I meet up with pilots from QANTAS. JetStar, Virgin all the time. We meet for coffees. Some want to apply to the company I work for but we won't take them. They have been stood down. I got stood down twice. Once for COVID and this one operational due to non availability of the Melbourne Simulator. Was almost going to be sent to Texas to get current over there. Reason why they didn't is because I would be on mandatory isolation in a hotel room for a minimum of 14 days and nights on full pay.

The guys with the biggest problem will be International. Or long haul. They are at least 12 months from starting up but I doubt they will be longer than that. Domestic in Australia will ramp up much much quicker. What will happen is companies will rotate their pilots on a 2 week on and 2 week off roster and also delay re-currency checks by a month or 2 so that they can keep the maximum amount of pilots flying. QANTAS put 200 pilots on voluntary redundancies. They were offering 200K or a year's salary to take one but it was only available to pilots 55 and over. If our company did that, I would have put my hand up and waited for my call up. But what they did is offer involuntary packages for 8 guys and 6 months. We went from 55 down to 47.

[Robin Hood]

I still think you have a rather isolationist and rosy view of the prospects for the airline industry. We will see whose concept is nearer the mark ............ maybe sooner rather than later?

Just yesterday ............. CNN (I think) reported that for the last 6 months there has been social support for many Americans but that support ended this weekend. There were also debt holidays on loans and mortgages and they also ended. The same situation also applies to the UK and I assume, Australia?

CNN said there was a probability that 45M Americans, families who are buying their homes, could be made homeless when bank’s start foreclosing on properties with defaulted mortgages. This will break up families and cause untold hardship but apparently the US Government has no plans to deal with this situation.

But, it gets even worse! Up to 70M who are also in arrears with their rent, both individuals and businesses are also at risk of eviction. With a total population of around 330M ...... it could be that, worse case scenario, over a third of the total US population get added to the homeless list. (....... of course the figures are speculative, but they ARE going to be high.)

Many of these people you are counting on as passengers? I think air travel will revert to being a necessity or something mainly for the rich and business executives. Mass air travel by ordinary people will collapse ..... along with the loss of jobs.

What do you think is going to happen when these people find out, and they will, that the banks never actually leant them any money in the first place, they just created a bookkeeping debt? When their properties are sold off at knockdown prices, the banks will take their interest and all their costs and what’s left will pay of the capital ‘debt’.

When the banks do this they destroy that money just to keep the books straight! As Henry Ford is attributed as having said .......... and he could well prove to be correct all these years later:

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning" ― Henry Ford

[Kikapu]

Social Security Pension in the USA just announced that those becoming 60 years old in 2020 will receive 9% less money when they officially fully retire in 6-7 years time. I think this is just the first of few more cuts in SS payments for future retirees as well as raising the full retirement age to be higher. Age 67 is the official age for retirement for those born after 1950, depending on which year. My full SS retirement year went from age 65 to 66 years and 2 months as I was born in 1955. Age 65 is still the official retirement age for men in Switzerland and 64 for women.

The longer the virus situation continues, there is going to be less money for everyone as less taxes are collected to pay for the social programs we are all use to having, from the police, schools, fire departments, park services, government employees, hospitals. On top of which, many services will see increase in costs. We are going to go back to basic survival instincts and use whatever money we have wisely on important things first until things start to change for the better....hopefully.

[Londonrake]

And I imagine the people bitching loudest about those inevitable consequences will have been the most vociferous on how the lock-down was too late/short/lax.

[Kikapu]

And I imagine the people bitching loudest about those inevitable consequences will have been the most vociferous about how the lockdown was too late/short/lax.

The lockdowns has helped reduce the spread of the virus much more than it would have been as we are seeing now. Yes, there was an economic hit with the lockdowns for couple of months, but the economic hit would have been much worse and sooner than what it is today even without a lockdown when there is a massive increase in the new cases, creating an economic hits on everyone. Lockdowns or not, the economy would have suffered/is suffering, even without a lockdown. As we speak, there are very few lockdowns exist, however, due to the pandemic expanding in huge numbers now in short periods, a million more new cases every 3-4 days, it has spooked the people and businesses as it is difficult to continue the same as life before the pandemic. In short, the economy would be where it is today only because of the pandemic and not lockdowns.

[Londonrake]

Well, as Mandy Rice-Davies once famously said “...............

[Paphitis]

This one flying along the east coast. Nice cloud formations with a blanket of smoke covering the landscape as far as you can see like a blanket of sheet.

When on approach to places like Sydney you couldn’t see anything until we can see the High Intensity Approach Lighting in the final 250Ft. I remember it vividly but sadly could not take a picture as it’s a rather busy time and critical phase where we run a sterile cockpit.