The Best Cyprus Community

Skip to content


Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how long?

Feel free to talk about anything that you want.

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Paphitis » Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:54 am

Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:Let’s look at the facts.

Spanish flu was back in 1918 where only few people traveled globally which was mainly by ships taking weeks and months to get from A to B, and yet it infected 3rd of world’s population and killed many millions as there could not be any accuracy of the death numbers. For all we know far more could have been infected and far more could have died.

Fast forward to 2020, a century into the present where millions travel across the globe in matter of hours in jets for pleasure and business, therefore, in today’s world we are far more efficient in infecting the whole world with infectious disease such as Covid-19 if it were left unchecked. So yes, 540 million dead is not unreasonable amount in comparison to the era of the Spanish Flu back in 1918-1919.



How are your facts looking now Kiks...? :?

The fact is, Covid-19 for the most part was NOT left unchecked, therefore we will never know the final damage, however, look at Brasil which was left unchecked as the virus has gotten out of control and the same with the USA after the lockdown (checked) was lifted.

To date, only 10m cases and 500,000 deaths...

Your 540 million dead was out by quite a bit was it not...? :lol:

The fact is, Covid-19 for the most part was NOT left unchecked, therefore we will never know what the final damage would have been, however, look at Brasil which was left unchecked as the virus has gotten out of control and the same with the USA after the lockdown (checked) was lifted. The USA may well be having 100,000 new positive cases soon. If the whole world becomes positive in time, at 7% death rate, 540 million dead will be the result. Today we have much higher daily positive cases than we did a month ago, so you can celebrate prematurely that the virus is licked, but that would be very premature. :wink:


The other factor is high density living - such as what you have in places such as new York, Sao Paulo, Rio etc etc. Difficult to contain it when people live on top of each other.

All you need is one asymptomatic person touch elevator buttons or hand rails and anyone following will be infected.

What places like South Korea, Australia and Cyprus have proven is that we can never eradicate it completely. All we can do is reduce the spread and control it.

So this leads to the following question.

How long can we maintain any lock down? It's a sensible question to ask because we can't be locked down forever or for years up until a vaccine is found if ever it will be found because it is also possible that no vaccine will be found ever.

There are 2 trains of thought here.You have the Australian/South Korean model which is very successful in controlling the spread. But could also be futile. And you have the Swedish Model which has no lock down at all, but does have a good campaign of social distancing. Also a good model because it has successfully reduced the spread but with a lesser impact on the economy.

So which model is best? Australian/South Korean Model or Swedish Model.

I am leaning towards Sweden.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 26758
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:39 am

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
cyprusgrump wrote:
Kikapu wrote:Let’s look at the facts.

Spanish flu was back in 1918 where only few people traveled globally which was mainly by ships taking weeks and months to get from A to B, and yet it infected 3rd of world’s population and killed many millions as there could not be any accuracy of the death numbers. For all we know far more could have been infected and far more could have died.

Fast forward to 2020, a century into the present where millions travel across the globe in matter of hours in jets for pleasure and business, therefore, in today’s world we are far more efficient in infecting the whole world with infectious disease such as Covid-19 if it were left unchecked. So yes, 540 million dead is not unreasonable amount in comparison to the era of the Spanish Flu back in 1918-1919.



How are your facts looking now Kiks...? :?

The fact is, Covid-19 for the most part was NOT left unchecked, therefore we will never know the final damage, however, look at Brasil which was left unchecked as the virus has gotten out of control and the same with the USA after the lockdown (checked) was lifted.

To date, only 10m cases and 500,000 deaths...

Your 540 million dead was out by quite a bit was it not...? :lol:

The fact is, Covid-19 for the most part was NOT left unchecked, therefore we will never know what the final damage would have been, however, look at Brasil which was left unchecked as the virus has gotten out of control and the same with the USA after the lockdown (checked) was lifted. The USA may well be having 100,000 new positive cases soon. If the whole world becomes positive in time, at 7% death rate, 540 million dead will be the result. Today we have much higher daily positive cases than we did a month ago, so you can celebrate prematurely that the virus is licked, but that would be very premature. :wink:


The other factor is high density living - such as what you have in places such as new York, Sao Paulo, Rio etc etc. Difficult to contain it when people live on top of each other.

All you need is one asymptomatic person touch elevator buttons or hand rails and anyone following will be infected.

What places like South Korea, Australia and Cyprus have proven is that we can never eradicate it completely. All we can do is reduce the spread and control it.

So this leads to the following question.

How long can we maintain any lock down? It's a sensible question to ask because we can't be locked down forever or for years up until a vaccine is found if ever it will be found because it is also possible that no vaccine will be found ever.

There are 2 trains of thought here.You have the Australian/South Korean model which is very successful in controlling the spread. But could also be futile. And you have the Swedish Model which has no lock down at all, but does have a good campaign of social distancing. Also a good model because it has successfully reduced the spread but with a lesser impact on the economy.

So which model is best? Australian/South Korean Model or Swedish Model.

I am leaning towards Sweden.


Unfortunately one size does not fit all. What may work for the Swedes does not work for vast majority of the world’s countries for many different reasons.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 14996
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby cyprusgrump » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:42 pm

Here is an excellent article which explains everything I believe and have been claiming from the start. It links to data, charts and scientific proofs of its claims. I can't believe anybody reading this would still think Lockdown was justified...

LOCKDOWN LUNACY 2.0: Second wave?

Not even close.


It is a long article but it concludes...

In Conclusion
Dr. Michael Levitt and Sweden have been right all along. The only way through COVID-19 is by achieving the modest (10-20%) Herd Immunity Threshold required to have the virus snuff itself out. The sooner politicians—and the press—start talking about HIT and stop talking about new confirmed cases, the better off we will all be. Either way, it’s likely weeks, not months, before the data of new daily deaths will be so low that the press will have to find something new to scare everyone. It’s over.


Happy to help! :wink:
User avatar
cyprusgrump
Main Contributor
Main Contributor
 
Posts: 8043
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:35 pm
Location: Pissouri, Cyprus

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Paphitis » Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:54 pm

Well it's interesting that whilst the new cases statistics are at an all time high, the death rate is actually reducing.

My GP seems to think that as the virus spreads, humans will build an immunity or the virus will evolve into a form which allows it to survive in a host without killing the host. His words, not mine.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 26758
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:39 am

Paphitis wrote:Well it's interesting that whilst the new cases statistics are at an all time high, the death rate is actually reducing.

Not exactly, Paphitis. Yes, at present time your statement seems true, but it is very much misleading, because you are dismissing the incubation period that it takes 2-4 weeks for patient to die after contracting the virus. Let’s look at the death numbers in about 2-3 weeks and see where they are. The “low” death numbers we have now are the numbers achieved with the lockdown, but as the new cases has exploded in the USA (50,000+ yesterday) after the lock down and the numbers are also increasing in other countries who are not practicing social distancing and the use of masks, I expect death rates to rise rapidly and sharply.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 14996
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Paphitis » Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:57 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:Well it's interesting that whilst the new cases statistics are at an all time high, the death rate is actually reducing.

Not exactly, Paphitis. Yes, at present time your statement seems true, but it is very much misleading, because you are dismissing the incubation period that it takes 2-4 weeks for patient to die after contracting the virus. Let’s look at the death numbers in about 2-3 weeks and see where they are. The “low” death numbers we have now are the numbers achieved with the lockdown, but as the new cases has exploded in the USA (50,000+ yesterday) after the lock down and the numbers are also increasing in other countries who are not practicing social distancing and the use of masks, I expect death rates to rise rapidly and sharply.


i didn't say it means anything otherthan the fact that the death rate is on a downward trend at present. less people dieing but record number of new cases.

What this means is very unclear. It could even be the case that countries have been giving misleading information on the number of deaths. Such as attributing the cause of death as Chy-na Virus when the cause of death was something else. Dieing with Chy-na Virus does not mean dieing as a result of Chy-na Virus.

I find my GP's comments yesterday interesting. It was the second time I heard his rationale. He believes firmly that Chy-na Virus Death rates will decline over time as the Virus evolves and mutates and as more and more people catch it and build an immunity to the virus. He also said, that in the beginnings of the common flu, death rates were high, until medicine treatment became more advance and humanity built an immunity reducing the death rate to negligible proportions.

I don't find this rationale an unreasonable one.

And in fact it is the only solution if a vaccine can't be found. Given the fact that we have been unable to develop a vaccine for MERS or SARS, then it could be a situation that we won't have a vaccine in 20 years. Over that amount of time, billions of people would have caught it at one time or another.

And let's say this scenario is correct and a vaccine can't be found, then lock downs are only valid to slow the infection rate for our health services to cope. No other reason for lock downs at all. And probably we will have to learn to live with it and just lt the pandemic run its course.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 26758
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:53 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:Well it's interesting that whilst the new cases statistics are at an all time high, the death rate is actually reducing.

Not exactly, Paphitis. Yes, at present time your statement seems true, but it is very much misleading, because you are dismissing the incubation period that it takes 2-4 weeks for patient to die after contracting the virus. Let’s look at the death numbers in about 2-3 weeks and see where they are. The “low” death numbers we have now are the numbers achieved with the lockdown, but as the new cases has exploded in the USA (50,000+ yesterday) after the lock down and the numbers are also increasing in other countries who are not practicing social distancing and the use of masks, I expect death rates to rise rapidly and sharply.


i didn't say it means anything otherthan the fact that the death rate is on a downward trend at present. less people dieing but record number of new cases.

What this means is very unclear. It could even be the case that countries have been giving misleading information on the number of deaths. Such as attributing the cause of death as Chy-na Virus when the cause of death was something else. Dieing with Chy-na Virus does not mean dieing as a result of Chy-na Virus.
.


Yes, I get that, thanks.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 14996
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby repulsewarrior » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:02 am




...ekie e katavtisame.

Dr. John, dare i say it, pissed off.
User avatar
repulsewarrior
Main Contributor
Main Contributor
 
Posts: 9367
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 2:13 am
Location: homeless in Canada

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Kikapu » Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:11 am

repulsewarrior wrote:


...ekie e katavtisame.

Dr. John, dare i say it, pissed off.


Very good find, Warrior.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 14996
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: Still no confirmed Corona cases in Cyprus, but for how l

Postby Tim Drayton » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:03 pm

If we're interested in views of doctors, for an alternative perspective here is an interesting recent interview with Dr Andrew Kaufman, who was a doctor until recently having been drummed out of the profession for having the spine to stand up to the diktats of big pharma. Interviews with Kaufman tend to be censored quite quickly so catch it while you can.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/64wfcVjCBaDC/
User avatar
Tim Drayton
Main Contributor
Main Contributor
 
Posts: 8616
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:32 am
Location: Limassol/Lemesos

PreviousNext

Return to General Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest