The Best Cyprus Community

Skip to content


The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Everything related to politics in Cyprus and the rest of the world.

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Paphitis » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:04 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:Paphitis, do you know what happened to the pilots you knew who had left their jobs in Australia and went to the USA on the same visa as yours a month or two ahead of your planned departure? Did they return back to Australia in the end since they would have been furloughed almost immediately around this time last year by the American airline companies they were meant to work for?


I know what happened to the ones I speak to. They have been stood down.

Not just them but thousands of pilots in general have been stood down although they are starting to redeploy them at least part time so they can at least have current crews.

I got a letter from them as well saying that my engagement with them will be postponed so affective lay stood down but have an active employment number.

US Immigration hasn’t cancelled my 3 year BISA which I thought they might do. Still in my passport and still active as far as the US is concerned.

All of us are facing stand downs as of next month, or the sack if you have pissed management off, or redundancies and par outs.


It the same world over with all the airlines, I’m afraid. Many employees collective bargainings between the Unions and the company will be cancelled and renegotiated. Next 4 years looks quite bleak for the aviation industry sorry to say.

I think your visa is good for 4 years and since you did not voluntarily withdrew your application, it may remain valid until then.


Yes well it looks like they have the upper hand for now but it’s a 2 edged sword as well as experienced pilots won’t sign their souls away. From the beginning of COVID till now, 8% have walked from the industry voluntarily. That will have a very bad impact for the airlines once COVID is over or the world gets on with COVID normal life where COVID is accepted just like the flu. In other words when we accept COVID isn’t going away and will remain with us like the common flu.

The global economy seems like it just wants to move forward.

If we go to a state of normalness with Covid, the industry will recover very quickly imho. Then the reverse is true. Chronic pilot shortage driving up salaries and conditions as the airlines compete for the remaining talent.

I agree with you for the most part, but it all depends if there will be a demand from the public to return back to the air to the pre Covid days. Just like many businesses will continue having their employees working from home from now as it is beneficial for both the employees and the companies. No need to travel for 12 hours on a plane when meetings can be done on zoom.

More holidays at home with a car or camper. Easier on the body from jet lags, airport screening hassle and no allowance on to the planes for those refusing to vaccinate, but may fly if they do the Covid test for both directions at extra cost. Time will tell where we will end up as far as air travel will go.


Airline industry is very volatile and it’s an industry that experiences high fluctuations. For instance, when there is a major global crisis such as a war that has far reaching global and geopolitical ramifications, a global economic crisis, or such as now where there is a pandemic known as Covid. Aviation suffers. People travel less when their is a hint of any security risk, there is a down turn or a pandemic. Holidays are discretionary spending.

It’s all part of the cycle. But I’ve never seen anything like this before.

When Covid either goes away or is controlled to some extent by the vaccination process, demand for travel will naturally recover. The desire to travel never goes away for most people. If people have job security and earning money and able to save for their vacation, they will travel.

To be fair, I don’t think it’s the same thing as working from home. Travel, recreational and business will rebound but will be limited by the industries ability to service the demand. It may not be possible to cater for the demand as putting pilots back on the line isn’t a straight forward process. It’s not like a truck driver or something like it where a truckie can just get back in the seat. Pilots need recurrence training to meet the legislated minimums. It isn’t easy or logistically straight forward and there will be a significant bottleneck ramping up services and getting mothballed planes sitting in the desert airworthy again. These will be the issues over the next year or so that will need to be addressed. It can take up to 2 years to get through those bottlenecks. Not a short term thing at all and it’s very expensive as well.

But airlines are very aware of these issues and are also showing a lot of restraint and forward planning. Hence will companies are introducing rotating rosters. 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off. Keeping as many pilots flying and rotating their fleet more and more.

This is my prediction.

Covid will be with us for years. Most of us will get vaccinated eventually. But we can still get Covid. But hopefully with less symptoms that will be grave for us. Some people however will still die, but hopefully much fewer people because of the vaccination programs. Then, hopefully, we are in a state of normalness where Covid is accepted.

When we arrive at that point, we will all start traveling. People will get more confident and desire that holiday in the Greek Islands or Caribbean.

Of course this also means that over the next 20 odd years, we might all have had Covid at least once in our lives. Hopefully this along with the vaccinations allows our bodies to fight this bug as well. But like MERS and SARS, this isn’t going away.

In effect, in a year or so, maybe 2 years tops, everything will be opened up. Travel, business. Basically the American model will be global with Covid running rampant but among the vaccinated populace and hopefully 99.8% being a symptomatic with nothing more than a runny nose and very few deaths which may still occur among the very frail.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 28766
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Kikapu » Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:32 am

Close to coming to meltdown in the airline industry in recent years before Covid was 9/11 in 2001. Covid is far far more serious for the aviation industry than 9/11 ever was which mainly affected the USA. Unlike 9/11 which mainly affected the aviation industry, Covid is affecting ALL travel industries. I would not like to bet any money when things will turn around to pre Covid years since there are clear new variants coming from the original coronavirus, which may well be for science playing catch-up all the time.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 16352
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Paphitis » Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:52 pm

Kikapu wrote:Close to coming to meltdown in the airline industry in recent years before Covid was 9/11 in 2001. Covid is far far more serious for the aviation industry than 9/11 ever was which mainly affected the USA. Unlike 9/11 which mainly affected the aviation industry, Covid is affecting ALL travel industries. I would not like to bet any money when things will turn around to pre Covid years since there are clear new variants coming from the original coronavirus, which may well be for science playing catch-up all the time.


Post Covid, or in a state of Covid normal, where Covid will essentially be with us still and probably be with us for the rest of our lives, the industry can recover very quickly.

The falls are steep but so are the rises in our industry. Big booms and big busts. It’s volatile.

The only thing that can prolong the recovery period is the ability to ramp up operations with pilots, engineers and aircraft.

But the recovery will take less than 2 years because of the bottlenecks mentioned,

If airlines are saver, and done are proving to be very savvy here in Australia, Middle East, Europe and US, the bottlenecks should be well controlled so provided they can manage the situation it’s possible to attain pre Covid levels within 6 months. It’s definitely possible and feasible that demand for airlines will far exceed ore Covid levels very very quickly,

The not so savvy will struggle fir a couple of years.

People are itching to start traveling again here in Australia to overseas destinations Once the restrictions are lifted, travel agents are going to have a couple of boom years like never before.

Personally, I think the flood gates open again within the next 1 to 2 years.

Think about it for a second. Why wouldn’t you travel?

Aviation is the global economies heavy lifter for tourism, business and freight.

It will come back Kikapu. And they will get to pre Covid levels quite quickly. Only thing holding them back is the number of pilots and crewing limitations in the short term plus pilot shortage.

In business, I know a Chinese businessman who had to sell his businesses in Australia in order to go back to China as he has business interests there that are far bigger and far more important knowing he will never be allowed back into the country until the Covid restrictions are lifted. Put it this way, if Aviation doesn’t come back, then it will be disastrous for business and trade. Cyprus will be dust economically as well and so too Greece and others who are heavily reliant on tourism. But there will be wider ramifications for business in general and other countries as well. It will cost business trillions. And trillions more fir governments.

There will be a pint Kikapu when this will all be over and I think we are approaching that point soon. Over but not over as Covid will be with us. Once the vaccine is administered I think there we will just move on and get on with it,
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 28766
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Kikapu » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:37 pm

In your last sentence I thought you were inviting me for a pint (should I travel to Australia), but it was just a misprint. :lol:

Listen, I am itching to travel as soon as possible. I miss my flights in comfort to destinations I love visiting.

Oh, we were flying inverted here. The captain thought we would get a kick out of it. :D

5B4B9CD1-1227-492A-A6BF-61329A0758C0.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 16352
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Paphitis » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:02 pm

Kikapu wrote:In your last sentence I thought you were inviting me for a pint (should I travel to Australia), but it was just a misprint. :lol:

Listen, I am itching to travel as soon as possible. I miss my flights in comfort to destinations I love visiting.

Oh, we were flying inverted here. The captain thought we would get a kick out of it. :D

5B4B9CD1-1227-492A-A6BF-61329A0758C0.jpeg


You are always welcome over for a pint should you ever travel to Australia. But the last time you came you didn’t let me know to see if that can be arranged.

Qantas just posted losses of 1 billion. It sounds like a lot and it is a lot but Qantas is very strong financially so the chances of bankruptcy is minuscule. Last time it posted a loss was about 12 years ago it it was a fake loss because the bought a stack of new planes and wiped out their bottom line.

They also announced they will be restarting international flights in Oct 2021. Qantas was one of few airlines that grounded their entire international network. They basically shut the business down.

Even in the domestic market they are shedding most of the travel to their fully owned Jetstar subsidiary because it has lower operating costs.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 28766
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Kikapu » Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:14 pm

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:In your last sentence I thought you were inviting me for a pint (should I travel to Australia), but it was just a misprint. :lol:

Listen, I am itching to travel as soon as possible. I miss my flights in comfort to destinations I love visiting.

Oh, we were flying inverted here. The captain thought we would get a kick out of it. :D

5B4B9CD1-1227-492A-A6BF-61329A0758C0.jpeg


You are always welcome over for a pint should you ever travel to Australia. But the last time you came you didn’t let me know to see if that can be arranged.

Qantas just posted losses of 1 billion. It sounds like a lot and it is a lot but Qantas is very strong financially so the chances of bankruptcy is minuscule. Last time it posted a loss was about 12 years ago it it was a fake loss because the bought a stack of new planes and wiped out their bottom line.

They also announced they will be restarting international flights in Oct 2021. Qantas was one of few airlines that grounded their entire international network. They basically shut the business down.

Even in the domestic market they are shedding most of the travel to their fully owned Jetstar subsidiary because it has lower operating costs.


Last time I was in Australia, the trip was only confirmed about a weeks before I came because the older sister of my host just had a cancer operation to the Pancreas and wanted to know she was well before I came, and she was “well” when I was there in Adelaide for the week, but while I was on the road in Melbourne, she took turn for the worse and died few weeks later. Also, at the time, I didn’t know you lived in Adelaide, not to mention the friends there had a full itinerary planned whilst in Adelaide. I was also able to confirm to meet with Birkibrisli in Sydney, also just before leaving Switzerland. Hopefully we can meet next time. I think we would have already met in the US by now had it not been for the Covid Pandemic. Who would have predicted? Well, maybe Bill Gates! :wink:

I had used Jetstar on three flights and they were good and on time. One return flight from Singapore to Phnom Penh, Cambodia and a one way flight from Phuket, Thailand to Singapore, so to connect with Swiss to/from Zurich.

October is a long time away for Qantas to start their International flights, but then again, that is probably the start of their high travel season to Australia.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 16352
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Paphitis » Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:28 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:In your last sentence I thought you were inviting me for a pint (should I travel to Australia), but it was just a misprint. :lol:

Listen, I am itching to travel as soon as possible. I miss my flights in comfort to destinations I love visiting.

Oh, we were flying inverted here. The captain thought we would get a kick out of it. :D

5B4B9CD1-1227-492A-A6BF-61329A0758C0.jpeg


You are always welcome over for a pint should you ever travel to Australia. But the last time you came you didn’t let me know to see if that can be arranged.

Qantas just posted losses of 1 billion. It sounds like a lot and it is a lot but Qantas is very strong financially so the chances of bankruptcy is minuscule. Last time it posted a loss was about 12 years ago it it was a fake loss because the bought a stack of new planes and wiped out their bottom line.

They also announced they will be restarting international flights in Oct 2021. Qantas was one of few airlines that grounded their entire international network. They basically shut the business down.

Even in the domestic market they are shedding most of the travel to their fully owned Jetstar subsidiary because it has lower operating costs.


Last time I was in Australia, the trip was only confirmed about a weeks before I came because the older sister of my host just had a cancer operation to the Pancreas and wanted to know she was well before I came, and she was “well” when I was there in Adelaide for the week, but while I was on the road in Melbourne, she took turn for the worse and died few weeks later. Also, at the time, I didn’t know you lived in Adelaide, not to mention the friends there had a full itinerary planned whilst in Adelaide. I was also able to confirm to meet with Birkibrisli in Sydney, also just before leaving Switzerland. Hopefully we can meet next time. I think we would have already met in the US by now had it not been for the Covid Pandemic. Who would have predicted? Well, maybe Bill Gates! :wink:

I had used Jetstar on three flights and they were good and on time. One return flight from Singapore to Phnom Penh, Cambodia and a one way flight from Phuket, Thailand to Singapore, so to connect with Swiss to/from Zurich.

October is a long time away for Qantas to start their International flights, but then again, that is probably the start of their high travel season to Australia.


Sorry to hear of those circumstances. Well yeh, hopefully next time we can meet.

Sydney was a minimum of 1 layover for me per week, sometimes 2 per week. So could have met if you were in Adelaide, Brisbane or Sydney.

Things have changed now because of Covid.

Jetstar is fine. Fully QANTAS owned, they are doing most of the Qantas flights these days in the domestic market. You rarely see a Qantas plane in the sky. Just Jetstar. Low cost carrier and it’s about the dollars at the end of the day.

But the good news today is Qantas announced recommencent of international services by October.

The bad news is the 1 billion in losses. Qantas will be ok though. It’s presence in the market is too strong plus they have a lot of cash.
User avatar
Paphitis
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 28766
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 2:06 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Kikapu » Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:14 pm

I was hosted by Birkibrisli at his home at the Blue Mountains for two days, so only had 2 days in Sydney.

Hope all goes well for you in the aviation industry and the company you work for. Many aviation companies are in a very opportunistic times now with their employees. The tables will turn again in a few years if all goes well.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 16352
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby repulsewarrior » Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:26 pm

Bir alive?

Glad to hear it; next time you see him, please say hello for me. Believe it or not like billc., i am hoping he will come back to visit us.
User avatar
repulsewarrior
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 10306
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 2:13 am
Location: homeless in Canada

Re: The US Election Thread: Trump Lives Matter

Postby Kikapu » Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:54 pm

repulsewarrior wrote:Bir alive?

Glad to hear it; next time you see him, please say hello for me. Believe it or not like billc., i am hoping he will come back to visit us.


I will let him know next time I talk to him, Warrior.
User avatar
Kikapu
Leading Contributor
Leading Contributor
 
Posts: 16352
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:18 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Politics and Elections

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests