Londonrake wrote:I've always thought/said I believed Russia would win this war. I have to rethink that though after recent events. Although I've lacked Paphitis's faith and enthusiasm, post Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson I'm starting to bend to his view.
After 9 months fighting, and all the destruction and loss incurred, clearly the war's been a total disaster for everybody and not the rapid, virtually painless walkover (like Crimea 2014) originally conceived. I wonder what would happen if we were transported back to Feb 23rd. In the light of events would Putin actually stick to his, several times expressed, statement that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine? It was all malicious western propaganda?
If Russia were to win the war tomorrow and, as per the original expectation, take the whole of Ukraine, what sort of "victory" would it constitute? They'd find themselves overlords of 40 million who'd learned to hate the Russian's guts. It would surely be an unending nightmare of violent insurrection? Requiring a vast number of occupiers to even try to keep a lid on it?
A win for Russia means implementing the 2014 Minsk agreements regardless the cost, therefore, looking at the Ukraine map to parts which Russia occupies, not only Russia has implemented the 2014 Minsk agreements, but has exceeded it, not to the likings of Zelensky. Zelensky has made it clear that the war is not over until ALL occupied territories are returned, including Crimea.
Putin had the war plan correct against Ukraine and he would have achieved it very quickly whatever they may have been, but he got blindsided by not knowing that the collective West was going to join the war on Ukraine’s side which has been the plan since 2014 Minsk agreements, which stands the reason why Ukraine never ratified it the 8 years since. Had Putin plan to have a war with the collective West, no doubt he would have planned it differently.
Paphitis is not correct that Ukraine has/will win this war because of Russians pulling out off Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia is solidifying the regions it is holding using the Dnipro River as a good natural defensive line where it can. This will allow Russia to shell the Ukrainian forces with the minimum requirement of it’s own forces. Should the Dam on the river is blown up, the war in the Kherson region will be over for a while, both for Russia and Ukraine.
Bottom line is though, that Ukraine with full backing of NATO has not been able to take the occupied areas by Russia, especially since Russia was not intending such a fight at the start in February 24th and was never prepared for it. Slowly but surely the collective West is getting tired of supplying weapons and money to Ukraine at the cost of having their economies damaged. I would not be surprised if the collective West has already made arrangements for Russia to pull out of Kherson so to give a small “victory” to Zelensky and at the same time force Zelensky to reach an agreement with Russia at the current battle lines. It might sound far fetched, but then again, wars makes strange bedfellows, no?
