Cyprus-Forum.com

by **Kikapu** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:14 pm

It appears that Russia has started delivering the S-400s to Turkey as of today, which seems to have caused the Turkish Lira and the Istanbul Stock market to take a dive.

Can this be in anticipation of sanctions from the USA and sanctions from the EU on Turkey's illegal drilling in the RoC's EEZ?

What will happen next to Turkey?

https://www.dailysabah.com/defense/2019 ... urkey-says

by **erolz66** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:20 pm

Kikapu wrote: which seems to have caused the Turkish Lira .... to take a dive.

If the delivery was today the 12th, can not see any such 'dive' in the TL/ Euro rate so far ?

turkeydive.JPG

Edit - So yeah my chart is the wrong way round in that higher on that chart means you get more TL for a single Euro, and thus higher = TL weakening. So yeah there has been some downwards movement. Not sure I would call it a 'dive' from how far it has moved so far but yes some downwards movement over the course of the 12th.

by **Maximus** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:53 pm

the “ countering America’s adversaries ” sanctions will very likely be implemented. Expulsion from the f35 program is already practically a given. The US is already lining up alternative partners to supply the parts that turkey was.

Some people think that these sanctions will be like turning off the life support machine that the Turkish economy is currently running on.

Erdogan has already taken over monetary policy, where he is expected to lower interest rates significantly to burn out the economy with his growth at any cost formula. So even without sanction, you can bet that erdogan will do more than enough damage just left to his own devices.

As for eu sanctions over turkeys illegal drilling, they look very punitive and will unlikely have a significant impact or achieve the desired result. Platitudes and weakness would better describes them but at least they support the roc.

All in all, the future does not look good for turkey. She will have serious problems and even more conflicts to resolve.

by **Maximus** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:14 pm

Some financial commentators think that turkey is at risk of a Latin American / African style meltdown.

Venezuela and Zimbabwe come to mind.

Erdogan will be confiscating everyone’s food and rationing it out in government run market places dotted around the country.

Then capital controls will be implemented, then the mass printing of money following by urging everyone to borrow at these low interests rates to survive.

A never ending spiral before a violent rebellion kicks in.

by **erolz66** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:18 pm

Maximus wrote:Some financial commentators think that turkey is at risk of a Latin American / African style meltdown.

Venezuela and Zimbabwe come to mind.

Which if it does turn out the case, should be 'positive' in terms of bitcoin price

by **Maximus** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:26 pm

erolz66 wrote:
Maximus wrote:Some financial commentators think that turkey is at risk of a Latin American / African style meltdown.

Venezuela and Zimbabwe come to mind.

Which if it does turn out the case, should be 'positive' in terms of bitcoin price

Maybe, probably, yes,

This is one type of fundamental that could have a positive affect on bitcoin. When Cyprus was going through its crisis, the Cypriot haircut was mentioned a lot in the bitcoin community. They used it as an argument for the benefits of bitcoin.

It served its purpose as a positive advertisement for the fledgling technology and the importance of having more control of your money.

This created demand by reaching a wider audience, which pushed up the price and the rest is history.

by **Kikapu** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:01 pm

I don't think the US cares about putting sanctions on Turkey. They mainly want to get Turkey out of the F-35 project. This way Erdogan can claim victory on no sanctions and the US gets what it wants. Of course, those in congress might want to punish Erdogan anyway by imposing the sanctions just for the hell of it.

by **miltiades** » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:01 pm

Sometime backnI predicted that Turkey will be out of NATO in the not top distant future. This latest development might just herald the begining of Turkey being kicked out of NATO.