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Boeing 737 MAX+

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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:14 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Even if the MAX does not fly again, what will happen is that Boeing will cover losses from its partners and customers, including loss of revenue. Yes it will cost them Billions but it is nothing for a company that declares 100 billion in profit every year.
.


I think you are confusing Boeing’s $100B revenue with profit per year.

All of last year’s approx $10B Boeing’s Profit has been lost this year on the MAX.

Not to mention how much loss in revenue also.


It doesn't matter what it is lost. To Boeing, that is just a write off they will put on the wrong side of their financial ledger.

They are not going to miraculously disappear because they lost 10Billion.

Secondly, you don't know how much they will lose. they could lose only a fraction of that as quite clearly they are still progressing with the re-certification of the Max. Until they announce they are abandoning the project we are just speculating. They won't persist for it forever if the problems are not solvable but for now, with all the information they have released, the MAX isn't dead in the water just yet. They anticipate that the MAX will fly again but they will still be liable for losses one way or another.

But let's say they lose 20 Billion, that is a drop in the ocean against their business model and their resources. They got a lot of assets and IP worth hundreds of Billions. Their defense arm right now is actually phenomenal and quite staggering. They are even in bed with NASA and the Space Program. They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars. This isn't even scratching the surface as they own about 30 other companies.

This is one of the biggest companies in the world.

Sounds to me like a lot of people want them to go down. But let's think about that very carefully. They go down, and the industry goes backwards some decades and the public will pay for that because Boeing for decades has been an international leader at the forefront of innovation and extremely high standards in safety and quality. It is by no mistake Boeing have many fans the world over because their products always seem to set new benchmarks just like the B777, B787 and the new B797 which by all reports is going to be the most advance airliner in the world. They are allowed to make mistakes an Aviation is littered with mistakes. The industry is always going to kill some people just like an other mode of transport but the safety record of aviation speaks for itself.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby erolz66 » Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:50 am

Paphitis wrote:They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars.



Except Boeing do not own Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, or Halliburton. It is like you just made that up entirely ;)
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:20 am

Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Even if the MAX does not fly again, what will happen is that Boeing will cover losses from its partners and customers, including loss of revenue. Yes it will cost them Billions but it is nothing for a company that declares 100 billion in profit every year.
.


I think you are confusing Boeing’s $100B revenue with profit per year.

All of last year’s approx $10B Boeing’s Profit has been lost this year on the MAX.

Not to mention how much loss in revenue also.


It doesn't matter what it is lost. To Boeing, that is just a write off they will put on the wrong side of their financial ledger.

They are not going to miraculously disappear because they lost 10Billion.

Secondly, you don't know how much they will lose. they could lose only a fraction of that as quite clearly they are still progressing with the re-certification of the Max. Until they announce they are abandoning the project we are just speculating. They won't persist for it forever if the problems are not solvable but for now, with all the information they have released, the MAX isn't dead in the water just yet. They anticipate that the MAX will fly again but they will still be liable for losses one way or another.

But let's say they lose 20 Billion, that is a drop in the ocean against their business model and their resources. They got a lot of assets and IP worth hundreds of Billions. Their defense arm right now is actually phenomenal and quite staggering. They are even in bed with NASA and the Space Program. They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars. This isn't even scratching the surface as they own about 30 other companies.

This is one of the biggest companies in the world.

Sounds to me like a lot of people want them to go down. But let's think about that very carefully. They go down, and the industry goes backwards some decades and the public will pay for that because Boeing for decades has been an international leader at the forefront of innovation and extremely high standards in safety and quality. It is by no mistake Boeing have many fans the world over because their products always seem to set new benchmarks just like the B777, B787 and the new B797 which by all reports is going to be the most advance airliner in the world. They are allowed to make mistakes an Aviation is littered with mistakes. The industry is always going to kill some people just like an other mode of transport but the safety record of aviation speaks for itself.


No one wants to see Boeing disappear. That would be bad for everyone, especially to the flying public.

At the same time, Boeing’s future is in their own hands. They already messed with it by knowingly building an aerodynamically unbalanced aircraft in the MAX and tried to correct that mistake by adding the MCAS which can go very wrong with faulty information, just so that Boeing can maintain the basic design of the 737 aircraft. The idea was brilliant as it brought in about 5,000 orders with Billions in future earnings, but Boeing knew they had a “sick” aircraft in their hands and kept quiet about it. They figured they can compensate few crashes with many millions pay out in each crashes, that they will still be way way ahead financially. Boeing never expected for the MAX to be grounded for this long just because few “stupid” pilots in 3rd world countries couldn’t save the diving plane at 500+ knots from less than 10,000 ft altitude in the 20 seconds they had because they had no idea what was happening to the aircraft.

If the MAX 8 is scrapped, so will the 9 & 10 models also, as they too would rely on the MCAS to keep the faulty designed aircraft in the air until it decides not to and send it to the ground. But Boeing faces a bigger problem than convincing the regulators at this stage for the MAX to return back to the air, and that is the flying public. If they refuse to fly on the MAX, no airline is going to keep their brand new MAX planes sitting on the ground just for good looks. I am afraid Boeing will be forced to start from scratch and design a new aircraft that can replace the 737 MAX models without the MCAS. It may take couple of years to get it done, but so be it, as neither Boeing or the operating airline can risk another MAX going down with a faulty MCAS.

Airbus already has about 7,000 back orders for their brands which will keep them busy for the next 10 years or so, so Boeing is not going to lose too much orders to Airbus if they spend the next couple of years to bring a new plane to the market in replacing the MAX. Boeing always made good planes, but got a little too greedy and careless with the MAX. They tried to keep building on the 737’s model by re-inventing it to a point of going beyond it’s safety envelope with devastating results so to make more easy money. Boeing went just a little too far with the MAX.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:30 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Even if the MAX does not fly again, what will happen is that Boeing will cover losses from its partners and customers, including loss of revenue. Yes it will cost them Billions but it is nothing for a company that declares 100 billion in profit every year.
.


I think you are confusing Boeing’s $100B revenue with profit per year.

All of last year’s approx $10B Boeing’s Profit has been lost this year on the MAX.

Not to mention how much loss in revenue also.


It doesn't matter what it is lost. To Boeing, that is just a write off they will put on the wrong side of their financial ledger.

They are not going to miraculously disappear because they lost 10Billion.

Secondly, you don't know how much they will lose. they could lose only a fraction of that as quite clearly they are still progressing with the re-certification of the Max. Until they announce they are abandoning the project we are just speculating. They won't persist for it forever if the problems are not solvable but for now, with all the information they have released, the MAX isn't dead in the water just yet. They anticipate that the MAX will fly again but they will still be liable for losses one way or another.

But let's say they lose 20 Billion, that is a drop in the ocean against their business model and their resources. They got a lot of assets and IP worth hundreds of Billions. Their defense arm right now is actually phenomenal and quite staggering. They are even in bed with NASA and the Space Program. They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars. This isn't even scratching the surface as they own about 30 other companies.

This is one of the biggest companies in the world.

Sounds to me like a lot of people want them to go down. But let's think about that very carefully. They go down, and the industry goes backwards some decades and the public will pay for that because Boeing for decades has been an international leader at the forefront of innovation and extremely high standards in safety and quality. It is by no mistake Boeing have many fans the world over because their products always seem to set new benchmarks just like the B777, B787 and the new B797 which by all reports is going to be the most advance airliner in the world. They are allowed to make mistakes an Aviation is littered with mistakes. The industry is always going to kill some people just like an other mode of transport but the safety record of aviation speaks for itself.


No one wants to see Boeing disappear. That would be bad for everyone, especially to the flying public.

At the same time, Boeing’s future is in their own hands. They already messed with it by knowingly building an aerodynamically unbalanced aircraft in the MAX and tried to correct that mistake by adding the MCAS which can go very wrong with faulty information, just so that Boeing can maintain the basic design of the 737 aircraft. The idea was brilliant as it brought in about 5,000 orders with Billions in future earnings, but Boeing knew they had a “sick” aircraft in their hands and kept quiet about it. They figured they can compensate few crashes with many millions pay out in each crashes, that they will still be way way ahead financially. Boeing never expected for the MAX to be grounded for this long just because few “stupid” pilots in 3rd world countries couldn’t save the diving plane at 500+ knots from less than 10,000 ft altitude in the 20 seconds they had because they had no idea what was happening to the aircraft.

If the MAX 8 is scrapped, so will the 9 & 10 models also, as they too would rely on the MCAS to keep the faulty designed aircraft in the air until it decides not to and send it to the ground. But Boeing faces a bigger problem than convincing the regulators at this stage for the MAX to return back to the air, and that is the flying public. If they refuse to fly on the MAX, no airline is going to keep their brand new MAX planes sitting on the ground just for good looks. I am afraid Boeing will be forced to start from scratch and design a new aircraft that can replace the 737 MAX models without the MCAS. It may take couple of years to get it done, but so be it, as neither Boeing or the operating airline can risk another MAX going down with a faulty MCAS.

Airbus already has about 7,000 back orders for their brands which will keep them busy for the next 10 years or so, so Boeing is not going to lose too much orders to Airbus if they spend the next couple of years to bring a new plane to the market in replacing the MAX. Boeing always made good planes, but got a little too greedy and careless with the MAX. They tried to keep building on the 737’s model by re-inventing it to a point of going beyond it’s safety envelope with devastating results so to make more easy money. Boeing went just a little too far with the MAX.


they didn't mess anything. They just made a new flight system which was subject to vulnerabilities and they did not pay enough attention to pilot training although they did get on top of it eventually with some Air Directive amendments to the Flight Manual and FCOM.

These things happen. Not the first nor the last.

No the Max 10 and Max 11 are still in production and have no issue with regard to certification. that is completely not true as affectively they are different planes altogether that require a different Type rating. The Max 9 only ceased production 2 days ago. Boeing still maintain that this is temporary.

B737NG - covers 800 series and below.

Boeing mistakenly included the Max 9 but if that flies it will become a separate endorsement and so too the Max 10 and Max 11 however the Max 11 is likely to include the Max 10 and Max 9 - so effectively the Max will be an endorsement of its own.

All this because of the MCAS and to also train pilots with the system and to practice all the drills in the QRH.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby erolz66 » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:41 am

Paphitis wrote:They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars.



Except Boeing do not own Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, or Halliburton. It is like you just made that up entirely ;)
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:53 am

Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Paphitis wrote:
Even if the MAX does not fly again, what will happen is that Boeing will cover losses from its partners and customers, including loss of revenue. Yes it will cost them Billions but it is nothing for a company that declares 100 billion in profit every year.
.


I think you are confusing Boeing’s $100B revenue with profit per year.

All of last year’s approx $10B Boeing’s Profit has been lost this year on the MAX.

Not to mention how much loss in revenue also.


It doesn't matter what it is lost. To Boeing, that is just a write off they will put on the wrong side of their financial ledger.

They are not going to miraculously disappear because they lost 10Billion.

Secondly, you don't know how much they will lose. they could lose only a fraction of that as quite clearly they are still progressing with the re-certification of the Max. Until they announce they are abandoning the project we are just speculating. They won't persist for it forever if the problems are not solvable but for now, with all the information they have released, the MAX isn't dead in the water just yet. They anticipate that the MAX will fly again but they will still be liable for losses one way or another.

But let's say they lose 20 Billion, that is a drop in the ocean against their business model and their resources. They got a lot of assets and IP worth hundreds of Billions. Their defense arm right now is actually phenomenal and quite staggering. They are even in bed with NASA and the Space Program. They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars. This isn't even scratching the surface as they own about 30 other companies.

This is one of the biggest companies in the world.

Sounds to me like a lot of people want them to go down. But let's think about that very carefully. They go down, and the industry goes backwards some decades and the public will pay for that because Boeing for decades has been an international leader at the forefront of innovation and extremely high standards in safety and quality. It is by no mistake Boeing have many fans the world over because their products always seem to set new benchmarks just like the B777, B787 and the new B797 which by all reports is going to be the most advance airliner in the world. They are allowed to make mistakes an Aviation is littered with mistakes. The industry is always going to kill some people just like an other mode of transport but the safety record of aviation speaks for itself.


No one wants to see Boeing disappear. That would be bad for everyone, especially to the flying public.

At the same time, Boeing’s future is in their own hands. They already messed with it by knowingly building an aerodynamically unbalanced aircraft in the MAX and tried to correct that mistake by adding the MCAS which can go very wrong with faulty information, just so that Boeing can maintain the basic design of the 737 aircraft. The idea was brilliant as it brought in about 5,000 orders with Billions in future earnings, but Boeing knew they had a “sick” aircraft in their hands and kept quiet about it. They figured they can compensate few crashes with many millions pay out in each crashes, that they will still be way way ahead financially. Boeing never expected for the MAX to be grounded for this long just because few “stupid” pilots in 3rd world countries couldn’t save the diving plane at 500+ knots from less than 10,000 ft altitude in the 20 seconds they had because they had no idea what was happening to the aircraft.

If the MAX 8 is scrapped, so will the 9 & 10 models also, as they too would rely on the MCAS to keep the faulty designed aircraft in the air until it decides not to and send it to the ground. But Boeing faces a bigger problem than convincing the regulators at this stage for the MAX to return back to the air, and that is the flying public. If they refuse to fly on the MAX, no airline is going to keep their brand new MAX planes sitting on the ground just for good looks. I am afraid Boeing will be forced to start from scratch and design a new aircraft that can replace the 737 MAX models without the MCAS. It may take couple of years to get it done, but so be it, as neither Boeing or the operating airline can risk another MAX going down with a faulty MCAS.

Airbus already has about 7,000 back orders for their brands which will keep them busy for the next 10 years or so, so Boeing is not going to lose too much orders to Airbus if they spend the next couple of years to bring a new plane to the market in replacing the MAX. Boeing always made good planes, but got a little too greedy and careless with the MAX. They tried to keep building on the 737’s model by re-inventing it to a point of going beyond it’s safety envelope with devastating results so to make more easy money. Boeing went just a little too far with the MAX.


BTW just a correction on the halt of production, Boeing has announced it will halt production of the MAX 9 in January 2020 and according to them, they expect certification by March 2020 and that the certification process is pending on final pilot training programs for MCAS. so they are still currently producing the Max 9 at present and have been building them since the grounding. Which is a massive vote of confidence on their part for the aircraft. Surely if there was any risk that the Max 9, they would stop wasting their money building these aircraft but they have not done that.

So according to them, MCAS isn't the issue, and the issue is to finalize pilot training on the use of MCAS and the QRH memory procedures and non-memory items and checklists in the QRH pertaining to trim runaway and MCAS Malfunction. So that is where it is at.

See what happens in March 2020.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby erolz66 » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:02 am

Paphitis wrote:They own many other businesses like Jeppessen, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Halliburton which also make massive profits of several Billions of Dollars.



Except Boeing do not own Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, or Halliburton. It is like you just made that up entirely ;)

How about you just fess up and take in on the chin and admit that you were just plain wrong with this claim ? Then I can stop posting this.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Kikapu » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:04 am

The mess up Boeing made with the MAX was to fit the large engines on the 737 model when it did not have the space for it, which ultimately was placed where it effected the center of gravity and the balance of the aircraft to fly in normal attitude. So the MCAS was created to maintain the plane’s attitude with constant corrections, just as an auto pilot would, but seems that normal auto pilot input was not enough to maintain normal attitude and needed the MCAS also which where the problems seems to lie when the MCAS went wrong with faulty info to it’s system. At least with the auto pilot when too much faulty system had entered, it would disengage and allow the pilots to fly the plane manually. MCAS did not allow that which caused the two crashes.
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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Londonrake » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:39 am

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Re: Boeing 737 MAX+

Postby Paphitis » Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:40 am

Kikapu wrote:The mess up Boeing made with the MAX was to fit the large engines on the 737 model when it did not have the space for it, which ultimately was placed where it effected the center of gravity and the balance of the aircraft to fly in normal attitude. So the MCAS was created to maintain the plane’s attitude with constant corrections, just as an auto pilot would, but seems that normal auto pilot input was not enough to maintain normal attitude and needed the MCAS also which where the problems seems to lie when the MCAS went wrong with faulty info to it’s system. At least with the auto pilot when too much faulty system had entered, it would disengage and allow the pilots to fly the plane manually. MCAS did not allow that which caused the two crashes.


I know why they had to design the MCAS to counteract the Centre of Gravity arm.

It is also a design fault that can be remedied very easily with ballast (speculating here as I am not sure what they are going to do) but of course it will still be pending on them regaining the trust of the regulator and getting the aircraft certified and re-weighed with all the new performance data to boot because once ballast is added there are 100 other considerations that need to be accounted for.

I wouldn't write off the Max 9. Boeing clearly haven't and neither has the FAA.

Also, according to Boeing, they need to provide solid training programs with regard to the new MCAS, something they neglected to do or flippantly did not regard it with the care it required. They have admitted that and are trying to implement proper training programs as well as all the design modifications they will do to the MCAS in order to appease the regulator and get the aircraft certified.

Any decision to return the MAX 9 into operation will not be taken lightly as we can all see.
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